The electoral consequences of welfare state changes: a sober look at theory and evidence

@ElectoralStdies It is also interesting that, in the sister piece on welfare, we found literally zero evidence for electoral consequences after social policy changes. This is different for tax changes. https://t.co/Bc29FWgmoi

@jdcmedlock Evidence for this from Europe: "The importance of welfare changes for electoral outcomes may therefore be overstated." https://t.co/BHfdVjwTNG

My @jepp_journal article with Frank Bandau on the (null) relationship between changes to the welfare state and electoral punishment/reward is now in print! See the thread below for a summary.

Paper F finally deals with the consequences of public opinion. It asks whether governments are retrospectively punished/rewarded when they oversee changes to the welfare state, which should contradict/coincide with people’s policy preferences. https://t.c