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The receptive versus current risks of Plasmodium falciparumtransmission in Northern Namibia: implications for elimination

Overview of attention for article published in BMC Infectious Diseases, April 2013
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Title
The receptive versus current risks of Plasmodium falciparumtransmission in Northern Namibia: implications for elimination
Published in
BMC Infectious Diseases, April 2013
DOI 10.1186/1471-2334-13-184
Pubmed ID
Authors

Abdisalan M Noor, Petrina Uusiku, Richard N Kamwi, Stark Katokele, Benson Ntomwa, Victor A Alegana, Robert W Snow

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Countries aiming for malaria elimination need to define their malariogenic potential, of which measures of both receptive and current transmission are major components. As Namibia pursues malaria elimination, the importation risks due to cross-border human population movements with higher risk neighboring countries has been identified as a major challenge. Here we used historical and contemporary Plasmodium falciparum prevalence data for Namibia to estimate receptive and current levels of malaria risk in nine northern regions. We explore the potential of these risk maps to support decision-making for malaria elimination in Namibia. METHODS: Geocoded community P. falciparum rate (PfPR) data from the period 1967--1992 (n = 3,260) and 2009 (n = 120) were modeled separately within a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (MBG) framework. A full Bayesian space-time MBG model was implemented using the 1967--1992 data to make predictions for every five years from 1969 to 1989. These maps were used to compute the maximum mean PfPR2-10 at 5 x 5 km locations in the northern regions of Namibia to estimate receptivity. A separate spatial Bayesian MBG was fitted to the 2009 data to predict current risk of malaria at similar spatial resolution. Using a high-resolution population map for Namibia, population at risk by receptive and current endemicity by region and population adjusted PfPR2-10 by health district were computed. Validations of predictions were undertaken separately for the historical and current risk models. RESULTS: Highest receptive risks were observed in the northern regions of Caprivi, Kavango and Ohangwena along the border with Angola and Zambia. Relative to the receptive risks, over 90% of the 1.4 million people across the nine regions of northern Namibia appear to have transitioned to a lower endemic class by 2009. The biggest transition appeared to have occurred in areas of highest receptive risks. Of the 23 health districts, 12 had receptive PAPfPR2-10 risks of 5% to 18% and accounted for 57% of the population in the north. Current PAPfPR2-10 risks was largely <5% across the study area. CONCLUSIONS: The comparison of receptive and current malaria risks in the northern regions of Namibia show health districts that are most at risk of importation due to their proximity to the relatively higher transmission northern neighbouring countries, higher population and modeled receptivity. These health districts should be prioritized as the cross-border control initiatives are rolled out.

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Mendeley readers

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 76 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 2 3%
Kenya 1 1%
Tanzania, United Republic of 1 1%
Canada 1 1%
United Kingdom 1 1%
Unknown 70 92%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Master 22 29%
Student > Ph. D. Student 11 14%
Researcher 7 9%
Student > Doctoral Student 6 8%
Student > Bachelor 5 7%
Other 9 12%
Unknown 16 21%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 16 21%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 9 12%
Environmental Science 6 8%
Nursing and Health Professions 5 7%
Computer Science 4 5%
Other 18 24%
Unknown 18 24%
Attention Score in Context

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 2. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 04 November 2016.
All research outputs
#13,383,750
of 22,708,120 outputs
Outputs from BMC Infectious Diseases
#3,329
of 7,650 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#103,633
of 195,118 outputs
Outputs of similar age from BMC Infectious Diseases
#70
of 140 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 22,708,120 research outputs across all sources so far. This one is in the 39th percentile – i.e., 39% of other outputs scored the same or lower than it.
So far Altmetric has tracked 7,650 research outputs from this source. They typically receive more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 9.6. This one has gotten more attention than average, scoring higher than 54% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 195,118 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one is in the 45th percentile – i.e., 45% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.
We're also able to compare this research output to 140 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 48th percentile – i.e., 48% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.