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The predictability of consumer visitation patterns

Overview of attention for article published in Scientific Reports, April 2013
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (97th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (96th percentile)

Mentioned by

news
1 news outlet
twitter
50 tweeters
facebook
5 Facebook pages
googleplus
3 Google+ users

Citations

dimensions_citation
31 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
72 Mendeley
citeulike
2 CiteULike
Title
The predictability of consumer visitation patterns
Published in
Scientific Reports, April 2013
DOI 10.1038/srep01645
Pubmed ID
Authors

Coco Krumme, Alejandro Llorente, Manuel Cebrian, Alex Pentland, Esteban Moro

Abstract

We consider hundreds of thousands of individual economic transactions to ask: how predictable are consumers in their merchant visitation patterns? Our results suggest that, in the long-run, much of our seemingly elective activity is actually highly predictable. Notwithstanding a wide range of individual preferences, shoppers share regularities in how they visit merchant locations over time. Yet while aggregate behavior is largely predictable, the interleaving of shopping events introduces important stochastic elements at short time scales. These short- and long-scale patterns suggest a theoretical upper bound on predictability, and describe the accuracy of a Markov model in predicting a person's next location. We incorporate population-level transition probabilities in the predictive models, and find that in many cases these improve accuracy. While our results point to the elusiveness of precise predictions about where a person will go next, they suggest the existence, at large time-scales, of regularities across the population.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 50 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 72 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Germany 3 4%
Spain 2 3%
United States 2 3%
Australia 2 3%
Japan 1 1%
Unknown 62 86%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Ph. D. Student 21 29%
Researcher 19 26%
Student > Master 10 14%
Professor > Associate Professor 7 10%
Student > Bachelor 4 6%
Other 11 15%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Computer Science 26 36%
Unspecified 9 13%
Social Sciences 7 10%
Physics and Astronomy 6 8%
Engineering 6 8%
Other 18 25%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 55. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 31 August 2017.
All research outputs
#271,106
of 12,476,446 outputs
Outputs from Scientific Reports
#3,306
of 57,109 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#3,144
of 145,718 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Scientific Reports
#4
of 157 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 12,476,446 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 97th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 57,109 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 15.3. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 94% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 145,718 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 97% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 157 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 96% of its contemporaries.