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Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble

Overview of attention for article published in The Lancet, April 2017
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (99th percentile)

Mentioned by

news
277 news outlets
blogs
20 blogs
policy
4 policy sources
twitter
802 tweeters
peer_reviews
1 peer review site
facebook
31 Facebook pages
googleplus
1 Google+ user
reddit
1 Redditor
video
2 video uploaders

Citations

dimensions_citation
522 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
863 Mendeley
Title
Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble
Published in
The Lancet, April 2017
DOI 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)32381-9
Pubmed ID
Authors

Vasilis Kontis, James E Bennett, Colin D Mathers, Guangquan Li, Kyle Foreman, Majid Ezzati

Abstract

Projections of future mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. Our aim was to forecast national age-specific mortality and life expectancy using an approach that takes into account the uncertainty related to the choice of forecasting model. We developed an ensemble of 21 forecasting models, all of which probabilistically contributed towards the final projections. We applied this approach to project age-specific mortality to 2030 in 35 industrialised countries with high-quality vital statistics data. We used age-specific death rates to calculate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 years, and probability of dying before age 70 years, with life table methods. Life expectancy is projected to increase in all 35 countries with a probability of at least 65% for women and 85% for men. There is a 90% probability that life expectancy at birth among South Korean women in 2030 will be higher than 86·7 years, the same as the highest worldwide life expectancy in 2012, and a 57% probability that it will be higher than 90 years. Projected female life expectancy in South Korea is followed by those in France, Spain, and Japan. There is a greater than 95% probability that life expectancy at birth among men in South Korea, Australia, and Switzerland will surpass 80 years in 2030, and a greater than 27% probability that it will surpass 85 years. Of the countries studied, the USA, Japan, Sweden, Greece, Macedonia, and Serbia have some of the lowest projected life expectancy gains for both men and women. The female life expectancy advantage over men is likely to shrink by 2030 in every country except Mexico, where female life expectancy is predicted to increase more than male life expectancy, and in Chile, France, and Greece where the two sexes will see similar gains. More than half of the projected gains in life expectancy at birth in women will be due to enhanced longevity above age 65 years. There is more than a 50% probability that by 2030, national female life expectancy will break the 90 year barrier, a level that was deemed unattainable by some at the turn of the 21st century. Our projections show continued increases in longevity, and the need for careful planning for health and social services and pensions. UK Medical Research Council and US Environmental Protection Agency.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 802 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 863 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 4 <1%
United Kingdom 4 <1%
Germany 2 <1%
Canada 1 <1%
Norway 1 <1%
Taiwan 1 <1%
Japan 1 <1%
Brazil 1 <1%
Unknown 848 98%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 124 14%
Student > Ph. D. Student 120 14%
Student > Bachelor 115 13%
Student > Master 106 12%
Other 55 6%
Other 212 25%
Unknown 131 15%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 221 26%
Nursing and Health Professions 57 7%
Social Sciences 55 6%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 47 5%
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology 44 5%
Other 253 29%
Unknown 186 22%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 2914. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 16 March 2021.
All research outputs
#1,206
of 18,263,379 outputs
Outputs from The Lancet
#90
of 37,235 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#19
of 269,804 outputs
Outputs of similar age from The Lancet
#3
of 510 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 18,263,379 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 37,235 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 58.6. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 269,804 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 510 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.