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An outbreak vector-host epidemic model with spatial structure: the 2015–2016 Zika outbreak in Rio De Janeiro

Overview of attention for article published in Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, March 2017
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Title
An outbreak vector-host epidemic model with spatial structure: the 2015–2016 Zika outbreak in Rio De Janeiro
Published in
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, March 2017
DOI 10.1186/s12976-017-0051-z
Pubmed ID
Authors

W. E. Fitzgibbon, J. J. Morgan, G. F. Webb

Abstract

A deterministic model is developed for the spatial spread of an epidemic disease in a geographical setting. The disease is borne by vectors to susceptible hosts through criss-cross dynamics. The model is focused on an outbreak that arises from a small number of infected hosts imported into a subregion of the geographical setting. The goal is to understand how spatial heterogeneity of the vector and host populations influences the dynamics of the outbreak, in both the geographical spread and the final size of the epidemic. Partial differential equations are formulated to describe the spatial interaction of the hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations have reaction-diffusion terms to describe the criss-cross interactions of hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations of the model are analyzed and proven to be well-posed. A local basic reproduction number for the epidemic is analyzed. The epidemic outcomes of the model are correlated to the spatially dependent parameters and initial conditions of the model. The partial differential equations of the model are adapted to seasonality of the vector population, and applied to the 2015-2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality in Brazil. The results for the model simulations of the 2015-2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality indicate that the spatial distribution and final size of the epidemic at the end of the season are strongly dependent on the location and magnitude of local outbreaks at the beginning of the season. The application of the model to the Rio de Janeiro Municipality Zika 2015-2016 outbreak is limited by incompleteness of the epidemic data and by uncertainties in the parametric assumptions of the model.

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Mendeley readers

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 63 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United Kingdom 1 2%
United States 1 2%
Unknown 61 97%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 13 21%
Student > Ph. D. Student 10 16%
Professor 7 11%
Student > Bachelor 5 8%
Student > Doctoral Student 5 8%
Other 12 19%
Unknown 11 17%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 13 21%
Mathematics 11 17%
Medicine and Dentistry 7 11%
Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine 3 5%
Social Sciences 3 5%
Other 16 25%
Unknown 10 16%
Attention Score in Context

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 2. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 03 March 2018.
All research outputs
#14,479,895
of 24,302,917 outputs
Outputs from Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling
#138
of 284 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#163,542
of 312,667 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling
#1
of 2 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 24,302,917 research outputs across all sources so far. This one is in the 39th percentile – i.e., 39% of other outputs scored the same or lower than it.
So far Altmetric has tracked 284 research outputs from this source. They typically receive more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 7.6. This one is in the 48th percentile – i.e., 48% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 312,667 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one is in the 45th percentile – i.e., 45% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.
We're also able to compare this research output to 2 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has scored higher than all of them