Title |
Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature
|
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Published in |
PLOS ONE, December 2013
|
DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0081648 |
Pubmed ID | |
Authors |
James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Frank Ackerman, David J. Beerling, Paul J. Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Shi-Ling Hsu, Camille Parmesan, Johan Rockstrom, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Pete Smith, Konrad Steffen, Lise Van Susteren, Karina von Schuckmann, James C. Zachos |
Abstract |
We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. |
X Demographics
Geographical breakdown
Country | Count | As % |
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United States | 98 | 15% |
United Kingdom | 74 | 11% |
Australia | 31 | 5% |
Canada | 26 | 4% |
Netherlands | 15 | 2% |
Germany | 12 | 2% |
France | 11 | 2% |
Spain | 10 | 2% |
Sweden | 7 | 1% |
Other | 92 | 14% |
Unknown | 275 | 42% |
Demographic breakdown
Type | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Members of the public | 524 | 80% |
Scientists | 94 | 14% |
Science communicators (journalists, bloggers, editors) | 21 | 3% |
Practitioners (doctors, other healthcare professionals) | 11 | 2% |
Unknown | 1 | <1% |
Mendeley readers
Geographical breakdown
Country | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
United States | 13 | 1% |
United Kingdom | 11 | <1% |
Germany | 4 | <1% |
Brazil | 3 | <1% |
Italy | 3 | <1% |
South Africa | 3 | <1% |
France | 2 | <1% |
Latvia | 2 | <1% |
Ecuador | 2 | <1% |
Other | 24 | 2% |
Unknown | 1073 | 94% |
Demographic breakdown
Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Researcher | 194 | 17% |
Student > Ph. D. Student | 175 | 15% |
Student > Master | 172 | 15% |
Student > Bachelor | 132 | 12% |
Other | 53 | 5% |
Other | 177 | 16% |
Unknown | 237 | 21% |
Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Environmental Science | 200 | 18% |
Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 146 | 13% |
Earth and Planetary Sciences | 116 | 10% |
Engineering | 75 | 7% |
Social Sciences | 68 | 6% |
Other | 253 | 22% |
Unknown | 282 | 25% |