Title |
Sea level rise, surface warming, and the weakened buffering ability of South China Sea to strong typhoons in recent decades
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Published in |
Scientific Reports, August 2017
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DOI | 10.1038/s41598-017-07572-3 |
Pubmed ID | |
Authors |
Jingru Sun, Leo Oey, F.-H. Xu, Y.-C. Lin |
Abstract |
Each year, a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific pass through the Luzon Strait into South China Sea (SCS). Although the storms remain above a warm open sea, the majority of them weaken due to atmospheric and oceanic environments unfavorable for typhoon intensification in SCS, which therefore serves as a natural buffer that shields the surrounding coasts from potentially more powerful storms. This study examines how this buffer has changed over inter-decadal and longer time scales. We show that the buffer weakens (i.e. greater potential for more powerful typhoons) in negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) years, as well as with sea-level-rise and surface warming, caused primarily by the deepening of the ocean's 26 °C isotherm Z 26 . A new Intensity Change Index is proposed to describe the typhoon intensity change as a function of Z 26 and other environmental variables. In SCS, the new index accounts for as high as 75% of the total variance of typhoon intensity change. |
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Student > Ph. D. Student | 5 | 20% |
Researcher | 4 | 16% |
Student > Doctoral Student | 1 | 4% |
Student > Bachelor | 1 | 4% |
Other | 1 | 4% |
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Other | 0 | 0% |
Unknown | 7 | 28% |