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Predictive determinants of scorpion stings in a tropical zone of south Iran: use of mixed seasonal autoregressive moving average model

Overview of attention for article published in Journal of Venomous Animals and Toxins including Tropical Diseases, August 2017
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Title
Predictive determinants of scorpion stings in a tropical zone of south Iran: use of mixed seasonal autoregressive moving average model
Published in
Journal of Venomous Animals and Toxins including Tropical Diseases, August 2017
DOI 10.1186/s40409-017-0129-4
Pubmed ID
Authors

Vahid Ebrahimi, Esmael Hamdami, Mohammad Djaefar Moemenbellah-Fard, Shahrokh Ezzatzadegan Jahromi

Abstract

More than 1.2 million scorpion stings occur annually worldwide, particularly in tropical regions. In the absence of proper medical care, mortality due to venomous scorpion stings is an important public health issue. The aim of the present study is to explore the temporal trend of scorpionism with time series models and determine the effective factors on this event using regression models. A retrospective cross sectional study was conducted on 853 scorpion stung patients. They were referred to Haji-Abad Hospital of Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences (HUMS), south Iran, from May 2012 to July 2016. A linear model to describe and predict the monthly trend of scorpion sting cases is fit with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Of 853 victims, 384 (45%) patients were female and 30.2% of them lived in urban areas. The mean (± SD) age of patients was 30.1 (± 19.6) years and the most affected age group was 20-29 years (21.8%). Most victims were unemployed people and farmers (54.7%) followed by housewives (30.2%). The majority of the stings occurred indoors (53.7%), between midnight and 6 a.m. (29.2%), in the summer (44.2%), and the most affected limbs were hands and legs (81.2%). Patient genders and occasions of being stung by scorpions were significantly different between outdoors and indoors (p < 0.001). Scorpion stings due to Odontobuthus doriae were significantly higher than due to other species in urban and rural patients (p = 0.04). Mixed seasonal ARMA at lag 12, ARMA (1, 1) × (0, 1), was selected as the best process for monthly trend of data. Regression results indicated that significant climate factors associated with scorpion stings are temperature (p < 0.001) and relative humidity (p = 0.002). Scorpion stings have a noticeable effect on tropical rural populations, mainly farmers. Two effective climate factors associated positively and negatively with scorpion sting cases are temperature and relative humidity, respectively. The results of time series and regression models to predict the trends and determinants of scorpion stings are almost the same.

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Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 18 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 18 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Ph. D. Student 4 22%
Student > Bachelor 3 17%
Researcher 3 17%
Student > Master 2 11%
Other 1 6%
Other 2 11%
Unknown 3 17%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 4 22%
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology 2 11%
Nursing and Health Professions 1 6%
Environmental Science 1 6%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 1 6%
Other 3 17%
Unknown 6 33%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 1. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 24 August 2017.
All research outputs
#8,952,751
of 11,653,629 outputs
Outputs from Journal of Venomous Animals and Toxins including Tropical Diseases
#212
of 301 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#176,640
of 263,151 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Journal of Venomous Animals and Toxins including Tropical Diseases
#6
of 7 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 11,653,629 research outputs across all sources so far. This one is in the 20th percentile – i.e., 20% of other outputs scored the same or lower than it.
So far Altmetric has tracked 301 research outputs from this source. They receive a mean Attention Score of 3.1. This one is in the 13th percentile – i.e., 13% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 263,151 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one is in the 26th percentile – i.e., 26% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.
We're also able to compare this research output to 7 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one.