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Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000

Overview of attention for article published in Nature, February 2011
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (97th percentile)

Mentioned by

news
14 news outlets
blogs
24 blogs
policy
5 policy sources
twitter
17 tweeters
video
1 video uploader

Citations

dimensions_citation
524 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
691 Mendeley
citeulike
10 CiteULike
Title
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000
Published in
Nature, February 2011
DOI 10.1038/nature09762
Pubmed ID
Authors

Pardeep Pall, Tolu Aina, Dáithí A. Stone, Peter A. Stott, Toru Nozawa, Arno G. J. Hilberts, Dag Lohmann, Myles R. Allen

Abstract

Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing. Yet climate models used to study the attribution problem typically do not resolve the weather systems associated with damaging events such as the UK floods of October and November 2000. Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766, these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services severely, and caused insured losses estimated at £1.3 billion (refs 5, 6). Although the flooding was deemed a 'wake-up call' to the impacts of climate change at the time, such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming, but fail to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step, physically based 'probabilistic event attribution' framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 17 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 691 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United Kingdom 16 2%
United States 12 2%
Germany 9 1%
Canada 4 <1%
Italy 4 <1%
Brazil 3 <1%
Switzerland 3 <1%
Japan 3 <1%
Belgium 3 <1%
Other 11 2%
Unknown 623 90%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 199 29%
Student > Ph. D. Student 149 22%
Student > Master 76 11%
Professor 41 6%
Student > Bachelor 39 6%
Other 143 21%
Unknown 44 6%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Earth and Planetary Sciences 226 33%
Environmental Science 159 23%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 55 8%
Engineering 52 8%
Social Sciences 31 4%
Other 98 14%
Unknown 70 10%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 310. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 26 December 2019.
All research outputs
#43,313
of 14,553,216 outputs
Outputs from Nature
#4,561
of 72,622 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#187
of 94,897 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Nature
#19
of 910 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 14,553,216 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 72,622 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 80.8. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 93% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 94,897 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 910 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 97% of its contemporaries.