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Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections

Overview of attention for article published in New England Journal of Medicine, October 2014
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  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (99th percentile)

Citations

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951 Dimensions

Readers on

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1461 Mendeley
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3 CiteULike
Title
Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections
Published in
New England Journal of Medicine, October 2014
DOI 10.1056/nejmoa1411100
Pubmed ID
Abstract

Background On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern." Methods By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa - Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14. Results The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total. Conclusions These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months.

Twitter Demographics

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Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 1,461 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 39 3%
United Kingdom 18 1%
Brazil 5 <1%
Germany 5 <1%
Japan 4 <1%
Spain 3 <1%
Canada 3 <1%
Kenya 2 <1%
Malaysia 2 <1%
Other 28 2%
Unknown 1352 93%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Bachelor 282 19%
Student > Master 281 19%
Researcher 209 14%
Student > Ph. D. Student 189 13%
Other 118 8%
Other 382 26%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 528 36%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 295 20%
Unspecified 114 8%
Social Sciences 97 7%
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology 68 5%
Other 359 25%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 1326. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 09 October 2019.
All research outputs
#2,185
of 13,623,773 outputs
Outputs from New England Journal of Medicine
#120
of 25,678 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#37
of 208,694 outputs
Outputs of similar age from New England Journal of Medicine
#2
of 352 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 13,623,773 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 25,678 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 64.2. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 208,694 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 352 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.