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Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

Overview of attention for article published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, October 2017
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  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (99th percentile)

Citations

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283 Mendeley
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3 CiteULike
Title
Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE
Published in
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, October 2017
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1703568114
Pubmed ID
Authors

Andra J. Garner, Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, Robert E. Kopp, Ning Lin, Richard B. Alley, Benjamin P. Horton, Robert M. DeConto, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, David Pollard

Abstract

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 4.0-5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100 and ranges from 5.0-15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970-2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030-2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280-2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse.

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X Demographics

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Mendeley readers

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 283 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 283 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Ph. D. Student 50 18%
Researcher 41 14%
Student > Master 37 13%
Student > Bachelor 20 7%
Professor 17 6%
Other 47 17%
Unknown 71 25%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Earth and Planetary Sciences 68 24%
Environmental Science 50 18%
Engineering 34 12%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 11 4%
Social Sciences 5 2%
Other 29 10%
Unknown 86 30%
Attention Score in Context

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 1370. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 25 September 2023.
All research outputs
#9,570
of 25,971,360 outputs
Outputs from Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
#298
of 104,077 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#142
of 341,801 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
#9
of 938 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 25,971,360 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 104,077 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 39.8. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 341,801 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 938 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.