| Title |
Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, October 2017
|
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1703568114 |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Andra J. Garner, Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, Robert E. Kopp, Ning Lin, Richard B. Alley, Benjamin P. Horton, Robert M. DeConto, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, David Pollard |
| Abstract |
The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 4.0-5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100 and ranges from 5.0-15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970-2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030-2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280-2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse. |
X Demographics
The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 781 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 252 | 32% |
| United Kingdom | 27 | 3% |
| Canada | 22 | 3% |
| Spain | 16 | 2% |
| Chile | 15 | 2% |
| Mexico | 12 | 2% |
| Australia | 9 | 1% |
| Colombia | 7 | <1% |
| France | 6 | <1% |
| Other | 70 | 9% |
| Unknown | 345 | 44% |
Demographic breakdown
| Type | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Members of the public | 667 | 85% |
| Scientists | 72 | 9% |
| Science communicators (journalists, bloggers, editors) | 28 | 4% |
| Practitioners (doctors, other healthcare professionals) | 13 | 2% |
| Unknown | 1 | <1% |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 279 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Unknown | 279 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 50 | 18% |
| Researcher | 38 | 14% |
| Student > Master | 37 | 13% |
| Student > Bachelor | 20 | 7% |
| Professor | 17 | 6% |
| Other | 47 | 17% |
| Unknown | 70 | 25% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Earth and Planetary Sciences | 65 | 23% |
| Environmental Science | 50 | 18% |
| Engineering | 34 | 12% |
| Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 11 | 4% |
| Social Sciences | 5 | 2% |
| Other | 29 | 10% |
| Unknown | 85 | 30% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 1371. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 25 September 2023.
All research outputs
#9,443
of 25,791,949 outputs
Outputs from Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
#294
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Outputs of similar age
#141
of 339,493 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
#9
of 938 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 25,791,949 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
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