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The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium

Overview of attention for article published in BMC Infectious Diseases, January 2018
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  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (92nd percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (98th percentile)

Mentioned by

blogs
1 blog
twitter
29 tweeters

Citations

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13 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
33 Mendeley
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1 CiteULike
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Title
The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium
Published in
BMC Infectious Diseases, January 2018
DOI 10.1186/s12879-017-2934-3
Pubmed ID
Authors

Giancarlo De Luca, Kim Van Kerckhove, Pietro Coletti, Chiara Poletto, Nathalie Bossuyt, Niel Hens, Vittoria Colizza

Abstract

School closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential to reduce transmission in children and then in the community. The policy is still however highly debated because of controversial evidence. Moreover, the specific mechanisms leading to mitigation are not clearly identified. We introduced a stochastic spatial age-specific metapopulation model to assess the role of holiday-associated behavioral changes and how they affect seasonal influenza dynamics. The model is applied to Belgium, parameterized with country-specific data on social mixing and travel, and calibrated to the 2008/2009 influenza season. It includes behavioral changes occurring during weekend vs. weekday, and holiday vs. school-term. Several experimental scenarios are explored to identify the relevant social and behavioral mechanisms. Stochastic numerical simulations show that holidays considerably delay the peak of the season and mitigate its impact. Changes in mixing patterns are responsible for the observed effects, whereas changes in travel behavior do not alter the epidemic. Weekends are important in slowing down the season by periodically dampening transmission. Christmas holidays have the largest impact on the epidemic, however later school breaks may help in reducing the epidemic size, stressing the importance of considering the full calendar. An extension of the Christmas holiday of 1 week may further mitigate the epidemic. Changes in the way individuals establish contacts during holidays are the key ingredient explaining the mitigating effect of regular school closure. Our findings highlight the need to quantify these changes in different demographic and epidemic contexts in order to provide accurate and reliable evaluations of closure effectiveness. They also suggest strategic policies in the distribution of holiday periods to minimize the epidemic impact.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 29 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 33 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 33 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Unspecified 7 21%
Researcher 7 21%
Student > Master 5 15%
Student > Ph. D. Student 4 12%
Student > Doctoral Student 3 9%
Other 7 21%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Unspecified 9 27%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 5 15%
Mathematics 5 15%
Social Sciences 4 12%
Medicine and Dentistry 3 9%
Other 7 21%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 28. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 22 June 2019.
All research outputs
#596,926
of 13,533,353 outputs
Outputs from BMC Infectious Diseases
#81
of 5,047 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#27,824
of 386,849 outputs
Outputs of similar age from BMC Infectious Diseases
#12
of 653 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 13,533,353 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 95th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 5,047 research outputs from this source. They receive a mean Attention Score of 4.8. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 98% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 386,849 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 92% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 653 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 98% of its contemporaries.