Predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular mortality in the 40 to 69 year old general population without cardiovascular diseases in Germany

Claudia Diederichs, Hannelore Neuhauser, Viktoria Rücker, Markus A. Busch, Ulrich Keil, Anthony P. Fitzgerald, Peter U. Heuschmann

To estimate the 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the 40 to 69 year old general population in Germany stratified by sex and to analyze differences between socio-economic status (SES), region and community size in individuals without CVD. The analysis is based on the newly recalibrated SCORE Deutschland risk charts and considered other comorbidities for the classification of the high CVD risk group according to the guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology. In 3,498 participants (40-69 years) from the German Health Examination Survey for Adults 2008-2011 (DEGS1) without a history of CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke) we estimated the proportion with a low (SCORE <1%), moderate (SCORE 1-<5%) and high 10-year CVD mortality risk (SCORE ≥5% or diabetes, renal insufficiency, SBP/DPB ≥180/110 mmHg or cholesterol >8 mmol/l). The prevalence of low, moderate and high risk was 42.8%, 38.5% and 18.8% in men and 73.7%, 18.1% and 8.2% in women. The prevalence of high risk was significantly lower in women with a high compared to a low SES (3.3% vs. 11.2%) and in communities with ≥100.000 inhabitants compared to <20.000 inhabitants (5.4% vs.10.9%). There were no significant associations between predicted CVD mortality risk and SES or community size in men and regions in men and women. Among the high risk group, 58.2% of men and 9.8% of women had SCORE ≥5%, leaving the majority of women (60.1%) classified as high risks due to diabetes and SCORE <5%. Our results suggest the persistence of socioeconomic disparities in predicted cardiovascular mortality in women and support the need of large-scale prevention efforts beyond individual lifestyle modification or treatment. Furthermore, the importance of additional comorbidities for the high risk group classification is highlighted.