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A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for greater Tokyo

Overview of attention for article published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences, June 2006
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5 Wikipedia pages

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Title
A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for greater Tokyo
Published in
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences, June 2006
DOI 10.1098/rsta.2006.1808
Pubmed ID
Authors

Ross S Stein, Shinji Toda, Tom Parsons, Elliot Grunewald

Abstract

Tokyo and its outlying cities are home to one-quarter of Japan's 127 million people. Highly destructive earthquakes struck the capital in 1703, 1855 and 1923, the last of which took 105,000 lives. Fuelled by greater Tokyo's rich seismological record, but challenged by its magnificent complexity, our joint Japanese-US group carried out a new study of the capital's earthquake hazards. We used the prehistoric record of great earthquakes preserved by uplifted marine terraces and tsunami deposits (17 M approximately 8 shocks in the past 7000 years), a newly digitized dataset of historical shaking (10000 observations in the past 400 years), the dense modern seismic network (300,000 earthquakes in the past 30 years), and Japan's GeoNet array (150 GPS vectors in the past 10 years) to reinterpret the tectonic structure, identify active faults and their slip rates and estimate their earthquake frequency. We propose that a dislodged fragment of the Pacific plate is jammed between the Pacific, Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates beneath the Kanto plain on which Tokyo sits. We suggest that the Kanto fragment controls much of Tokyo's seismic behaviour for large earthquakes, including the damaging 1855 M approximately 7.3 Ansei-Edo shock. On the basis of the frequency of earthquakes beneath greater Tokyo, events with magnitude and location similar to the M approximately 7.3 Ansei-Edo event have a ca 20% likelihood in an average 30 year period. In contrast, our renewal (time-dependent) probability for the great M > or = 7.9 plate boundary shocks such as struck in 1923 and 1703 is 0.5% for the next 30 years, with a time-averaged 30 year probability of ca 10%. The resulting net likelihood for severe shaking (ca 0.9 g peak ground acceleration (PGA)) in Tokyo, Kawasaki and Yokohama for the next 30 years is ca 30%. The long historical record in Kanto also affords a rare opportunity to calculate the probability of shaking in an alternative manner exclusively from intensity observations. This approach permits robust estimates for the spatial distribution of expected shaking, even for sites with few observations. The resulting probability of severe shaking is ca 35% in Tokyo, Kawasaki and Yokohama and ca 10% in Chiba for an average 30 year period, in good agreement with our independent estimate, and thus bolstering our view that Tokyo's hazard looms large. Given 1 trillion US dollars estimates for the cost of an M approximately 7.3 shock beneath Tokyo, our probability implies a 13 billion US dollars annual probable loss.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 61 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United Kingdom 1 2%
Malaysia 1 2%
Germany 1 2%
Taiwan 1 2%
Unknown 57 93%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 16 26%
Student > Ph. D. Student 12 20%
Student > Doctoral Student 8 13%
Professor > Associate Professor 4 7%
Professor 3 5%
Other 9 15%
Unknown 9 15%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Earth and Planetary Sciences 25 41%
Engineering 11 18%
Social Sciences 4 7%
Medicine and Dentistry 4 7%
Physics and Astronomy 2 3%
Other 4 7%
Unknown 11 18%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 3. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 27 September 2021.
All research outputs
#6,180,767
of 19,012,843 outputs
Outputs from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences
#1,097
of 2,447 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#94,897
of 307,276 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences
#32
of 53 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 19,012,843 research outputs across all sources so far. This one is in the 46th percentile – i.e., 46% of other outputs scored the same or lower than it.
So far Altmetric has tracked 2,447 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 11.8. This one is in the 38th percentile – i.e., 38% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 307,276 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has gotten more attention than average, scoring higher than 59% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 53 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 39th percentile – i.e., 39% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.