Title |
Downscaled rainfall projections in south Florida using self-organizing maps
|
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Published in |
Science of the Total Environment, April 2018
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DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.144 |
Pubmed ID | |
Authors |
Palash Sinha, Michael E. Mann, Jose D. Fuentes, Alfonso Mejia, Liang Ning, Weiyi Sun, Tao He, Jayantha Obeysekera |
Abstract |
We make future projections of seasonal precipitation characteristics in southern Florida using a statistical downscaling approach based on Self Organized Maps. Our approach is applied separately to each three-month season: September-November; December-February; March-May; and June-August. We make use of 19 different simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) and generate an ensemble of 1500 independent daily precipitation surrogates for each model simulation, yielding a grand ensemble of 28,500 total realizations for each season. The center and moments (25%ile and 75%ile) of this distribution are used to characterize most likely scenarios and their associated uncertainties. This approach is applied to 30-year windows of daily mean precipitation for both the CMIP5 historical simulations (1976-2005) and the CMIP5 future (RCP 4.5) projections. For the latter case, we examine both the "near future" (2021-2050) and "far future" (2071-2100) periods for three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). |
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Mendeley readers
Geographical breakdown
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Researcher | 3 | 12% |
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Student > Bachelor | 1 | 4% |
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Other | 1 | 4% |
Unknown | 7 | 28% |