A Predictive Spatial Distribution Framework for Filovirus-Infected Bats

Graziano Fiorillo, Paolo Bocchini, Javier Buceta

Tools with predictive capabilities in regards of filovirus outbreaks are mainly anthropocentric and have disregarded the ecological dimension of the problem. Here we contribute to shift the current paradigm by studying the dynamics of the putative main zoonotic niche of filoviruses, bats, and its link to environmental drivers. We propose a framework that combines data analysis, modeling, and the evaluation of sources of variability. We implement a regression analysis using factual data to correlate environmental parameters and the presence of bats to find the distribution of resources. The information inferred by the regression is fed into a compartmental model that describes the infection state. We also account for the lack of knowledge of some parameters using a sampling/averaging technique. As a result we estimate the spatio-temporal densities of bats. Importantly, we show that our approach is able to predict where and when an outbreak is likely to appear when tested against recent epidemic data in the context of Ebola. Our framework highlights the importance of considering the feedback between the ecology and the environment in zoonotic models and sheds light on the mechanisms to propagate filoviruses geographically. We expect that our methodology can help to design prevention policies and be used as a predictive tool in the context of zoonotic diseases associated to filoviruses.