Early mortality and functional outcome after acute stroke in Uganda: prospective study with 30 day follow-up

Jane Nakibuuka, Martha Sajatovic, Joaniter Nankabirwa, Charles Ssendikadiwa, Anthony J. Furlan, Elly Katabira, James Kayima, Nelson Kalema, Jayne Byakika-Tusiime, Edward Ddumba

Identification of early outcomes post stroke and their predictors is important in stroke management strategies. We prospectively analysed 30-day outcomes (mortality and functional ability) after stroke and their predictors among patients admitted within 7 days post event to a national referral hospital in Uganda. This was a prospective study of acute stroke patients consecutively enrolled between February and July 2014. Social demographics, clinical, laboratory, imaging characteristics, outcomes (all through 30 days), time of death were assessed using standardised questionnaires. Multiple regression was used to analyse the independent influence of factors on outcomes. Of 127 patients, 88 (69.3 %) had ischemic stroke and 39 (30.7 %) had hemorrhagic stroke. Eight (6.3 %) died within 7 days, 34 (26.8 %) died within 30 days, with 2/3 of deaths occurring in hospital. Two were lost to follow up. Of 91 survivors, 49 (53.9 %) had satisfactory outcome, 42 (46.1 %) had poor functional outcome. At multivariate analysis, independent predictors of mortality at 30 days were unconsciousness (GCS <9), severe stroke at admission and elevated fasting blood sugar. None of the patients with functional independence (Barthel index ≥60) at admission died within 30 days. Inverse independent predictors of satisfactory outcome at 30 days were older age, history of hypertension and severe stroke at admission. Acute stroke patients in Uganda still have high rates of early mortality and poor functional outcomes. Independent predictors of mortality and poor functional outcome were severe stroke at admission, unconsciousness, high fasting blood sugar, old age and history of hypertension.