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A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

Overview of attention for article published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences, November 2015
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  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • Among the highest-scoring outputs from this source (#32 of 2,083)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (98th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (95th percentile)

Mentioned by

news
4 news outlets
blogs
6 blogs
policy
1 policy source
twitter
7 tweeters
facebook
2 Facebook pages
googleplus
19 Google+ users

Citations

dimensions_citation
72 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
167 Mendeley
citeulike
1 CiteULike
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Title
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback
Published in
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences, November 2015
DOI 10.1098/rsta.2014.0423
Pubmed ID
Authors

C. D. Koven, E. A. G. Schuur, C. Schädel, T. J. Bohn, E. J. Burke, G. Chen, X. Chen, P. Ciais, G. Grosse, J. W. Harden, D. J. Hayes, G. Hugelius, E. E. Jafarov, G. Krinner, P. Kuhry, D. M. Lawrence, A. H. MacDougall, S. S. Marchenko, A. D. McGuire, S. M. Natali, D. J. Nicolsky, D. Olefeldt, S. Peng, V. E. Romanovsky, K. M. Schaefer, J. Strauss, C. C. Treat, M. Turetsky

Abstract

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of -14 to -19 Pg C °C(-1) on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.

Twitter Demographics

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Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 167 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 5 3%
United Kingdom 1 <1%
Australia 1 <1%
Unknown 160 96%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 40 24%
Student > Ph. D. Student 39 23%
Student > Master 20 12%
Unspecified 14 8%
Professor 11 7%
Other 43 26%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Environmental Science 58 35%
Earth and Planetary Sciences 53 32%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 24 14%
Unspecified 22 13%
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology 3 2%
Other 7 4%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 97. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 15 August 2019.
All research outputs
#162,041
of 13,386,682 outputs
Outputs from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences
#32
of 2,083 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#4,576
of 251,794 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences
#2
of 41 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 13,386,682 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 98th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 2,083 research outputs from this source. They typically receive more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 9.8. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 98% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 251,794 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 98% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 41 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 95% of its contemporaries.