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Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas‐fir

Overview of attention for article published in Global Change Biology, May 2016
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 25% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (87th percentile)
  • Good Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (65th percentile)

Mentioned by

blogs
1 blog
twitter
11 tweeters

Citations

dimensions_citation
44 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
99 Mendeley
citeulike
1 CiteULike
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Title
Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas‐fir
Published in
Global Change Biology, May 2016
DOI 10.1111/gcb.13328
Pubmed ID
Authors

Kevin R. Ford, Constance A. Harrington, Sheel Bansal, Peter J. Gould, J. Bradley St. Clair

Abstract

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures ("forcing") typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures ("chilling") while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, towards lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 11 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 99 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 99 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Ph. D. Student 26 26%
Researcher 22 22%
Student > Bachelor 11 11%
Student > Master 10 10%
Student > Doctoral Student 5 5%
Other 9 9%
Unknown 16 16%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Environmental Science 34 34%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 27 27%
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology 3 3%
Economics, Econometrics and Finance 2 2%
Earth and Planetary Sciences 2 2%
Other 4 4%
Unknown 27 27%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 14. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 15 September 2017.
All research outputs
#1,670,045
of 17,911,762 outputs
Outputs from Global Change Biology
#2,112
of 4,777 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#33,283
of 271,224 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Global Change Biology
#26
of 72 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 17,911,762 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 90th percentile: it's in the top 10% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 4,777 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 28.3. This one has gotten more attention than average, scoring higher than 55% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 271,224 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done well, scoring higher than 87% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 72 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has gotten more attention than average, scoring higher than 65% of its contemporaries.