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COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures

Overview of attention for article published in Journal of Travel Medicine, February 2020
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • One of the highest-scoring outputs from this source (#1 of 863)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (93rd percentile)

Mentioned by

news
48 news outlets
blogs
9 blogs
policy
2 policy sources
twitter
19427 tweeters
facebook
3 Facebook pages
wikipedia
4 Wikipedia pages
reddit
4 Redditors

Citations

dimensions_citation
126 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
577 Mendeley
Title
COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures
Published in
Journal of Travel Medicine, February 2020
DOI 10.1093/jtm/taaa030
Pubmed ID
URN
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-168517
Authors

J Rocklöv, H Sjödin, A Wilder-Smith

Abstract

Cruise ships carry a large number of people in confined spaces with relative homogeneous mixing. On 3 February, 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 on cruise ship Diamond Princess was reported with 10 initial cases, following an index case on board around 21-25 January. By 4 February, public health measures such as removal and isolation of ill passengers and quarantine of non-ill passengers were implemented. By 20 February, 619 of 3,700 passengers and crew (17%) were tested positive. We estimated the basic reproduction number from the initial period of the outbreak using (SEIR) models. We calibrated the models with transient functions of countermeasures to incidence data. We additionally estimated a counterfactual scenario in absence of countermeasures, and established a model stratified by crew and guests to study the impact of differential contact rates among the groups. We also compared scenarios of an earlier versus later evacuation of the ship. The basic reproduction rate was initially 4 times higher on-board compared to the ${R}_0$ in the epicentre in Wuhan, but the countermeasures lowered it substantially. Based on the modeled initial ${R}_0$ of 14.8, we estimated that without any interventions within the time period of 21 January to 19 February, 2920 out of the 3700 (79%) would have been infected. Isolation and quarantine therefore prevented 2307 cases, and lowered the ${R}_0$ to 1.78. We showed that an early evacuation of all passengers on 3 February would have been associated with 76 infected persons in their incubation time. The cruise ship conditions clearly amplified an already highly transmissible disease. The public health measures prevented more than 2000 additional cases compared to no interventions. However, evacuating all passengers and crew early on in the outbreak would have prevented many more passengers and crew from infection.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 19,427 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 577 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 577 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 96 17%
Student > Master 76 13%
Student > Ph. D. Student 51 9%
Other 47 8%
Student > Bachelor 45 8%
Other 143 25%
Unknown 119 21%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 142 25%
Social Sciences 31 5%
Nursing and Health Professions 30 5%
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology 29 5%
Engineering 29 5%
Other 163 28%
Unknown 153 27%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 5760. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 02 October 2020.
All research outputs
#223
of 16,094,474 outputs
Outputs from Journal of Travel Medicine
#1
of 863 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#35
of 256,669 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Journal of Travel Medicine
#1
of 16 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 16,094,474 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 863 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 13.3. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 256,669 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 16 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 93% of its contemporaries.