Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19: a modelling study

RT @ABetterMN: .@drscottjensen spreading more misinformation about COVID-19. The Lancet published a study showing that effective contact tr…

RT @ABetterMN: .@drscottjensen spreading more misinformation about COVID-19. The Lancet published a study showing that effective contact tr…

.@drscottjensen spreading more misinformation about COVID-19. The Lancet published a study showing that effective contact tracing DOES control the spread of COVID #mngov https://t.co/VoblhNGmKR https://t.co/6gJ0sQZmbH

RT @OpencovidM: Ma tra i presunti esperti che per "sbloccare il paese" avanzano proposte in tema di Test&Trace c'è qualcuno che ha dato pro…

RT @OpencovidM: Ma tra i presunti esperti che per "sbloccare il paese" avanzano proposte in tema di Test&Trace c'è qualcuno che ha dato pro…

RT @OpencovidM: Ma tra i presunti esperti che per "sbloccare il paese" avanzano proposte in tema di Test&Trace c'è qualcuno che ha dato pro…

👇👇

RT @OpencovidM: Ma tra i presunti esperti che per "sbloccare il paese" avanzano proposte in tema di Test&Trace c'è qualcuno che ha dato pro…

RT @OpencovidM: Ma tra i presunti esperti che per "sbloccare il paese" avanzano proposte in tema di Test&Trace c'è qualcuno che ha dato pro…

Ma tra i presunti esperti che per "sbloccare il paese" avanzano proposte in tema di Test&Trace c'è qualcuno che ha dato prova di avere almeno una vaga idea di come e quanto funzioni attualmente in Italia o siamo al livello del Bar dello Sport? Immagin

@c_endt @APeichl @jensspahn @klausholetschek @Karl_Lauterbach @OlafScholz @W_Schmidt_ @UteTeichert @BrinkmannLab @ViolaPriesemann @DirkBrockmann @CiesekSandra @TheBinderLab @Sander_Lab @FuestClemens @TiloJung Aus dem im @TheLancet 2020 erschienenem Artikel

@ederz77 @AlbertoBuenono @VctorRu75109394 @LuisAlv12846830 @epigmenioibarra @FelipeCalderon Aquí un paper, de la importancia de test, test, test, seguir contactos y aislamiento https://t.co/ph5erekwBm En otras palabras no son mentiras. Son hechos... En ot

@juliette_io Thanks, interesting data, and we have known for a while now what happens to the proportion of onward transmission prevented as delays increase: https://t.co/7zmQBtW7ca

RT @prajnamu: @lantip scr saintifik sudah dimodelkan, meski mungkin tidak 100 persen akurat: menunda tes (lewat tracing) akan meningkatkan…

@lantip scr saintifik sudah dimodelkan, meski mungkin tidak 100 persen akurat: menunda tes (lewat tracing) akan meningkatkan rasio penyebaran (R): https://t.co/NuvG1WBXW7

Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19: a modelling study https://t.co/HULdYWyZZu https://t.co/A7Qjrt83bR

Oder in Kretzschmar et al. von August 2020. 5/8 https://t.co/KzU2OZmN8S

RT @CarolineColijn: @jhengstler Actually we did do some contact tracing modelling early on, fit to BC data, but didn't end up publishing it…

RT @CarolineColijn: @jhengstler Actually we did do some contact tracing modelling early on, fit to BC data, but didn't end up publishing it…

RT @CarolineColijn: @jhengstler Actually we did do some contact tracing modelling early on, fit to BC data, but didn't end up publishing it…

RT @CarolineColijn: @jhengstler Actually we did do some contact tracing modelling early on, fit to BC data, but didn't end up publishing it…

@jhengstler Actually we did do some contact tracing modelling early on, fit to BC data, but didn't end up publishing it - others did similarly for other places https://t.co/8Aktpm9wM7

RT @Hiroshi_Tsuji: 英Lancet誌より症状出てから検査まで3日以上遅れると濃厚接触者追跡が追いつかないとの数理モデルによる推定結果出ました。感染拡大抑えるには早い検査が最も重要と結論。 https://t.co/6j42BJ9yJk

RT @benfooben: @MalteEngeler Zur Frage der epidemiologischen Sinnhaftigkeit kann ich beitragen, dass die Studie, die von den Luca-Macher*in…

@winkelsdorf @bkastl @patrick_hennig @alvar_f @maex_rakete @LittleDetritus @markus_bublitz @lesmoureal @tagesschau @evawolfangel @netzpolitik @zeitonline @LilithWittmann @HonkHase @thsStadler @cccfr @carmelatroncoso @ralf @anked @kelber Das ist das, was di

Ich hatte das in folgendem Thread schonmal als reine & falsche #LucaApp-PR debunked: 👇https://t.co/tB4yEXhR4M

Aha, der @LKreis_Harburg weiß mehr als die Macher*innen der #LucaApp selbst. Den wissenschaftlichen Beleg für den Nutzen würde ich gerne sehen. Hint: Die Studie, die @_lucaApp vorzeigt, behandelt den UseCase ("Hybrid Approach") explizit nicht. Studie:

RT @mlq3: Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19: a modelling study https://t.co/amlkU2SdZb

Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19: a modelling study https://t.co/amlkU2SdZb

@MalteEngeler Zur Frage der epidemiologischen Sinnhaftigkeit kann ich beitragen, dass die Studie, die von den Luca-Macher*innen als Beleg angeführt wird, deren Case explizit ausschließt ("hybrid approach") und wenn, mEn eher die CWA bevorzugt. -> http

RT @HonkHase: Oh, falsche Referenzen auf gute Studien sind jetzt schon der Maßstab bei der JumbaWhumba Marketing Popstar App?

@patrick_hennig hat mir dann untenstehende Studie präsentiert. Blöd: "We did not consider hybrid approaches of combined conventional and mobile app-based strategies." "hybrid approach" wäre #LucaApp. Ich frage mich, ob die die eigentlich gelesen haben?

Oh, falsche Referenzen auf gute Studien sind jetzt schon der Maßstab bei der JumbaWhumba Marketing Popstar App?

@frank_grimm @alvar_f @_dr_theopolis_ @lindworm @HonkHase @patrick_hennig @BenBE1987 @ralf @lesmoureal Wäre übrigens auch zentraler Bestandteil der Studie, die von @patrick_hennig angeführt wird, um den Nutzen von #LucaApp zu belegen. Die aber gleichzeit

@benfooben https://t.co/hAQxaCiIeP

@benfooben @lamelawyer @alvar_f @lindworm @HonkHase @BenBE1987 @ralf @lesmoureal bspw hier aus der Praxis: https://t.co/DywenCf458 Oder hier in Studien: https://t.co/hAQxaCiIeP

RT @HonkHase: Deren Basis sind ja zB diese beiden Studien als wissenschaftlich und Grund warum man Luca macht: https://t.co/Uw0BJra8cf ht…

RT @HonkHase: Deren Basis sind ja zB diese beiden Studien als wissenschaftlich und Grund warum man Luca macht: https://t.co/Uw0BJra8cf ht…

Deren Basis sind ja zB diese beiden Studien als wissenschaftlich und Grund warum man Luca macht: https://t.co/Uw0BJra8cf https://t.co/LTo7f44kC6 Soweit sogar, aber wo ist der Denkfehler? Nun... /15

@HerrTinnbart Diese Grafik zeigt das Prinzip recht gut: "Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19: a modelling study" https://t.co/DPwxQnIRBd https://t.co/9ZoAbAtjPc

@winkelsdorf @ennopark @TilRoquette @benfooben @anked @chaosupdates @evawolfangel @_lucaApp @henningtillmann @zerforschung @MalteEngeler @horn @lesmoureal @LageNation https://t.co/J9t7sjNEnO

@LilithWittmann @evawolfangel @rka @benfooben @rki_de Und hier https://t.co/HclxuDB0rc

@odrotbohm Wir versuchen frühzeitig eine Nachricht zu geben, in vierstufiger Intensität je nach Risikoeinschätzung um das Tracing Delay zu verkürzen https://t.co/HclxuDB0rc

RT @dynesius_: @FallTove @Permoman @regionuppsala Additionally from two other studies regarding contact tracing: 1. Bidirectional contact t…

@FallTove @Permoman @regionuppsala Additionally from two other studies regarding contact tracing: 1. Bidirectional contact tracing might help 2. Minimizing test delay also seems to help Sources: 1. https://t.co/0q9Ic8KaEa 2. https://t.co/I2ZN06YInf https:

@LilithWittmann Backward tracing ist ein Baustein, um Inzidenzwerte zu reduzieren. Am Besten mit Testing Strategie kombiniert. https://t.co/Hm1YQCRFjZ je schneller, desto besser. https://t.co/J9t7sjNEnO

@anked Eine Modellierungsstudie dazu findet sich hier https://t.co/J9t7sjNEnO

My reflection: This seems quite hopeful! I guess that this would cover Symptomatic covid. The next step would be to include A-/Presymptomatic Mobile App testing. Theoretically, this combination could change the game completely! Source: https://t.co/I2ZN

@CorneliusRoemer @lesmoureal Und hier gibt es eine Modellierungsstudie mit den Auswirkungen auf den R-Wert durch schnellere Kontaktermittlung. Information potentieller Infizierter innerhalb des luca Systems erfolgt in wenigen Minuten vs. einigen Tagen. htt

@CorneliusRoemer vgl. z.B.: "Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19" https://t.co/oIX5uTSSS9

RT @killedbyproxy: @StefanFSchubert This is just based on modelling but suggests the extent to which the effectiveness of cc is dependent o…

@StefanFSchubert This is just based on modelling but suggests the extent to which the effectiveness of cc is dependent on testing and tracing delays. It would be interesting to identify the breaking point where cc is not worthwhile due to delays. https:/

Die Kombination aus Schnelltests und digitaler Kontaktnachverfolgung können laut englischer Studie den r-Wert stark senken. Lockdownverlängerung und Öffnungsszenarien widersprechen sich nicht, sondern müssen jetzt gemeinsam gedacht werden. https://t.co/J9t

@BrinkmannLab Gut, also wann wird die Nachverfolgung endlich voll digitalisiert & mehr getestet? Inf.-ketten wären so schneller & besser verfolgbar als mit analoger Zettelwirtschaft & Faxen. Dadurch wären "höhere" Inzidenzzahlen weniger kritisc

RT @Itoh_Kiminori: 「検査が3日以上遅れると、感染の広がりを抑えられない」、というモデル研究の結果。 検査のスピードが最重要。 https://t.co/5v2aVF0UH5

@losadovski @bUSCon9 Ahí va https://t.co/yuKAX1JAOh

RT @albertoruano8: Lancet, 16/07 Importancia del acceso a tests, trazabilidad y uso de apps... Podrían prevenir hasta el 80% de transmisión…

Lancet, 16/07 Importancia del acceso a tests, trazabilidad y uso de apps... Podrían prevenir hasta el 80% de transmisión. ¿Repercusión en España? Ninguna https://t.co/yuKAX1JAOh https://t.co/rsP93NfAvH

RT @Derive_ip: 検査の遅れが３日以上になると、最善戦略でも実効再生産数を１に下げることはできなというシミュレーションが得られたそうです。『４日間はうちで』っていったい何だったんだ？ "With a testing delay of 3 days or longe…

RT @Ron_Roozendaal: 4/6 Minder dan 1% was ook al benaderd door de GGD in het kader van de reguliere bron- en contactopsporing. Kortom: 1. C…

4/6 Minder dan 1% was ook al benaderd door de GGD in het kader van de reguliere bron- en contactopsporing. Kortom: 1. CoronaMelder waarschuwt mensen sneller. Snelheid van signalering heeft invloed op de verspreiding van de pandemie (https://t.co/IMpWjdkY1t

@jmcrookston I would love that! I feel like they're hard to find. I just tried Google images and found this from July - which isn't happening properly. A friend - a nurse - was not asked who she was around or where she'd been. So just a wellness call I

@marcelsalathe eigentlich müsste man COVID mit Schnelltests und der App in den Griff kriegen https://t.co/bVMFOl6Dai Das BAG müsste jedoch die App besser promoten und die Testergebnisse müssten sofort verfügbar gemacht werden.

RT @ID_ethics: Re: Test & trace delays Proportion of onward transmissions prevented per case: 79.9% with a 0-day testing delay 41·8% w…

@Heunicke Kære sundhedsminister. Læs Lancet om denne model og beregningerne vedr. effekten af kontaktsporing og tænk så det hele igennem igen. Vi behøver en større kapacitet - også selv om vaccinerne nu er på vej. https://t.co/HF2kthyts4

RT @Hiroshi_Tsuji: 英Lancet誌より症状出てから検査まで3日以上遅れると濃厚接触者追跡が追いつかないとの数理モデルによる推定結果出ました。感染拡大抑えるには早い検査が最も重要と結論。 https://t.co/6j42BJ9yJk

@BrunoVuan @ONVentura @criticamj1 El que más me gusta, por ahora, es este: https://t.co/qjx2R8nhRQ 1/n

ただ、あまりに市中感染が増えすぎると、濃厚接触者対策の相対的な寄与は少なくなるかと思います。多数のトレースできていない人同士で感染が起き続けるので。

濃厚接触者の対策はRを減らすことが推定されています。特に接触者対策を行うことで自粛を緩めつつRを減らせるのではないかと考えられています。経済を維持するためにも濃厚接触者対策は重要だと思います。 https://t.co/T8ivo15aCl https://t.co/h9SZYBwhLQ

@SPhillipsAB @jkenney As this widely-respected paper shows, using smartphone for exposure notification: • on the day of positive test result • directly & anonymously to exposed app users • is as effective as isolation Also, contact tracing becomes wo

@GoerlichLars @michaelmina_lab @TallPupper Yes. 1/3 is ball park the best we can do, though it depends on the generation interval. https://t.co/ZVjxgvZdSu

Here’s a paper in The Lancet that builds a stochastic model to examine the potential effectiveness, in terms of reduction in reproductive rate, of conventional and digital contact tracing strategies. https://t.co/VqCUKSyWTv https://t.co/A3KFnG580a

RT @SilverVVulpes: "In our model, minimising testing delay had the largest impact on reducing onward transmissions." they make this about a…

"In our model, minimising testing delay had the largest impact on reducing onward transmissions." they make this about apps but it's an even better argument for fast self-administered tests!

@SPhillipsAB Also, use #COVIDAlert Because NOT feeding into contact tracers is an advantage, not a defect, even when they’re not overwhelmed. Notifying people you exposed right from your positive test, instead of waiting for contact tracers to get to yo

RT @ben_moll: @fetzert @EdConwaySky @D_Blanchflower @chakrabortty @patrickjbutler @RJPartington @cage_warwick @warwicknewsroom @abicadams S…

@EnvoyeSpecial Selon Yvon Le Flohic, mais surtout selon les scientifiques : https://t.co/u0XZP7Yet9

@fetzert @EdConwaySky @D_Blanchflower @chakrabortty @patrickjbutler @RJPartington @cage_warwick @warwicknewsroom @abicadams See e.g. https://t.co/eYB9XZvsN3 https://t.co/Mj6QZ8WbBI

@RajBhardwajMD @DShepYEG This widely-referenced paper modelled the effects of delays on conventional contact tracing, versus exposure notification apps that work right off the positive test, eg. #COVIDAlert There’s just no comparison once tracing delay &

@klaszus See Table 2 in this widely-referenced paper, Jeremy. The worse the Tracing Delay (D2), the lower the reduction in R(t). The authors modelled up to 3 days of delay, but you can clearly see the trend, no matter what the Testing Delay(D1). https://t

RT @ZiadFazel: @CarrieTait Lancet Study shows Exposure Notification that works off Positive Test (#COVIDAlert) reduces R(t) even at 20%. Bu…

RT @ZiadFazel: @CarrieTait Lancet Study shows Exposure Notification that works off Positive Test (#COVIDAlert) reduces R(t) even at 20%. Bu…

RT @ZiadFazel: @CarrieTait Lancet Study shows Exposure Notification that works off Positive Test (#COVIDAlert) reduces R(t) even at 20%. Bu…

RT @ZiadFazel: @CarrieTait Lancet Study shows Exposure Notification that works off Positive Test (#COVIDAlert) reduces R(t) even at 20%. Bu…

RT @ZiadFazel: @CarrieTait Lancet Study shows Exposure Notification that works off Positive Test (#COVIDAlert) reduces R(t) even at 20%. Bu…

RT @ZiadFazel: @CarrieTait Lancet Study shows Exposure Notification that works off Positive Test (#COVIDAlert) reduces R(t) even at 20%. Bu…

@CarrieTait Lancet Study shows Exposure Notification that works off Positive Test (#COVIDAlert) reduces R(t) even at 20%. But ABTraceTogether - which must wait until contact tracing starts - loses all speed advantage. https://t.co/ospG7BaWjm AB Gov Admit

@YYCCowboy 13 days, @adolwyn? It took me a few reads of this paper to figure it out, but with the science and medical backgrounds you and AJ have, you’ll absorb it faster. https://t.co/ospG7BaWjm

@MKingGlobal @AdamMacVicar @GlobalCalgary Seeing the 10 & 12 day delays in contact tracing in your article has me sending the link to this paper again. They differentiate conventional contact tracing with smartphone-based tracing, which is really the E

RT @ZiadFazel: For comparison of Conventional Contact Tracing to smartphone-based Exposure Notification, see July 2020 @TheLancet Authors…

For comparison of Conventional Contact Tracing to smartphone-based Exposure Notification, see July 2020 @TheLancet Authors modelled Contact Tracing *or* Exposure Notification. I hoped Alberta could have both, but... @RajBhardwajMD @GosiaGasperoPhD htt

RT @jhengstler: @adriandix @jjhorgan #BHenry @PHSAofBC If LEAD BY SCIENCE, the science supports the efficacy of #COVID19 app tracing in tim…

@MidlifeFasting @adriandix @jjhorgan @PHSAofBC @TheLancet Sorry to hear that. Wishing them a speedy recovery--and anyone else affected. If we had the #COVIDAlertApp in #BC it could support #contacttracing & help tamp down the spread--at least accordin

Here's @TheLancet article cited below https://t.co/MsEGgQ5rHp

@jjhorgan @adriandix #BHenry -- If a @PHSAofBC regional health authority like #FHA is apparently unable to discharge it's #contacttracing duties in a timely manner--science shows it won't curtail #COVID19 spread . ENABLE the #COVIDAlertApp already availabl

@adriandix @jjhorgan #BHenry @PHSAofBC If LEAD BY SCIENCE, the science supports the efficacy of #COVID19 app tracing in timely reaction to curtail virus spread: See @TheLancet https://t.co/MsEGgQ5rHp #COVIDAlertApp should be ENABLED for #BC without further

RT @Itoh_Kiminori: 「検査が3日以上遅れると、感染の広がりを抑えられない」、というモデル研究の結果。 検査のスピードが最重要。 https://t.co/5v2aVF0UH5

@liammannix @GregDore2 Don't think there is a simple number, as load increases delays & once test->contact-trace > 3 days can't get R< 1 https://t.co/WFLfrzVgLh https://t.co/Nfsn5uOVlI

@Jesda03 @mattarsalim Importante conocer cuantas se realizan y tienen el resultado el mismo día. Recordar que además también ayudan a tomar desiciones medicas. Un retraso entre tomar la muestra y la entrega de resultado según la evidencia actual no sirve.

RT @drsilenzi: @lorepregliasco TT è un pilastro fondamentale per la de-escalation non quando la curva si impenna (cit. Lancet https://t.co/…