Estimating average attributable fractions with confidence intervals for cohort and case–control studies

John Ferguson, Alberto Alvarez-Iglesias, John Newell, John Hinde, Martin O’Donnell

Chronic diseases tend to depend on a large number of risk factors, both environmental and genetic. Average attributable fractions were introduced by Eide and Gefeller as a way of partitioning overall disease burden into contributions from individual risk factors; this may be useful in deciding which risk factors to target in disease interventions. Here, we introduce new estimation methods for average attributable fractions that are appropriate for both case-control designs and prospective studies. Confidence intervals, derived using Monte Carlo simulation, are also described. Finally, we introduce a novel approximation for the sample average attributable fraction that will ensure a computationally tractable approach when the number of risk factors is large. An R package, [Formula: see text], implementing the methods described in this manuscript can be downloaded from the CRAN repository.