A Minimal Model Approach for Analyzing Continuous Glucose Monitoring in Type 2 Diabetes

Pranay Goel, Durga Parkhi, Amlan Barua, Mita Shah, Saroj Ghaskadbi

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), a technique that records blood glucose at a regular intervals. While CGM is more commonly used in type 1 diabetes, it is increasingly becoming attractive for treating type 2 diabetic patients. The time series obtained from a CGM provides a rich picture of the glycemic state of the subjects and may help have tighter control on blood sugar by revealing patterns in their physiological responses to food. However, despite its importance, the biophysical understanding of CGM is far from complete. CGM data series is complex not only because it depends on the composition of the food but also varies with individual physiology. All of these make a full modeling of CGM data a difficult task. Here we propose a simple model to explain CGM data in type 2 diabetes. The model combines a relatively simple glucose-insulin dynamics with a two-compartment food model. Using CGM data of a healthy and a diabetic individual we show that this model can capture liquid meals well. The model also allows us to estimate the parameters in a relatively straightforward manner. This opens up the possibility of personalizing the CGM data. The model also predicts insulin time series from the model, and the rate of appearance of glucose due to food. Our methodology thus paves the way for novel analyses of CGM which have not been possible before.