@patricksturg @ProfTimBale Here's one of the relevant papers - I am almost certainly getting their theory wrong but decent evidence that citizen predictions are... predictive. https://t.co/h9HOPN0IZX
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RT @shikhar_46: "Vote expectation models outperform vote intention models in predicting both the winning party and parties' seat shares."…
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"Vote expectation models outperform vote intention models in predicting both the winning party and parties' seat shares." Given all the problems with seat projection models in India, I wonder if anyone has tried this approach?! https://t.co/a0rk25JT4V
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See, for instance, Andreas' piece together with @MaryStegmaier and @mlewisbeck in @BJPolS: https://t.co/nGgUSTZuJR 3/5