@aryehazan @Sam_Schulman @ColinPClarke So this event is singular, and there's no way to learn from the past? I agree that reference classes are critical, and debateable, but arguing against a given reference class seems much less reasonable than proposing
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“The reference class problem is your problem too.” https://t.co/VraIrYGTGM
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@randomprocs @ETagliazucchi I would argue that the subjectivity applies equally to frequentist notions. Check out this excellent paper: https://t.co/Sx9K2ZsY6r
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@tyrell_turing @danijarh Well the subjectivity applies to frequentists too, in a way. It's called the Reference Class Problem. I highly recommend this paper: https://t.co/Sx9K2ZbneT