Discriminating Survival Outcomes in Patients with Glioblastoma Using a Simulation-Based, Patient-Specific Response Metric

Maxwell Lewis Neal, Andrew D. Trister, Tyler Cloke, Rita Sodt, Sunyoung Ahn, Anne L. Baldock, Carly A. Bridge, Albert Lai, Timothy F. Cloughesy, Maciej M. Mrugala, Jason K. Rockhill, Russell C. Rockne, Kristin R. Swanson

Accurate clinical assessment of a patient's response to treatment for glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), the most malignant type of primary brain tumor, is undermined by the wide patient-to-patient variability in GBM dynamics and responsiveness to therapy. Using computational models that account for the unique geometry and kinetics of individual patients' tumors, we developed a method for assessing treatment response that discriminates progression-free and overall survival following therapy for GBM. Applying these models as untreated virtual controls, we generate a patient-specific "Days Gained" response metric that estimates the number of days a therapy delayed imageable tumor progression. We assessed treatment response in terms of Days Gained scores for 33 patients at the time of their first MRI scan following first-line radiation therapy. Based on Kaplan-Meier analyses, patients with Days Gained scores of 100 or more had improved progression-free survival, and patients with scores of 117 or more had improved overall survival. Our results demonstrate that the Days Gained response metric calculated at the routinely acquired first post-radiation treatment time point provides prognostic information regarding progression and survival outcomes. Applied prospectively, our model-based approach has the potential to improve GBM treatment by accounting for patient-to-patient heterogeneity in GBM dynamics and responses to therapy.