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A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

Overview of attention for article published in Journal of Theoretical Biology, February 2017
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1 tweeter

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Title
A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought
Published in
Journal of Theoretical Biology, February 2017
DOI 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.11.011
Pubmed ID
Authors

Marjorie T. Jones, William R. Milligan, Lee B. Kats, Thomas L. Vandergon, Rodney L. Honeycutt, Robert N. Fisher, Courtney L. Davis, Timothy A. Lucas

Abstract

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profile of 1 tweeter who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 26 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 26 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Bachelor 6 23%
Researcher 4 15%
Student > Ph. D. Student 3 12%
Lecturer 1 4%
Student > Doctoral Student 1 4%
Other 3 12%
Unknown 8 31%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Environmental Science 8 31%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 6 23%
Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine 1 4%
Mathematics 1 4%
Psychology 1 4%
Other 2 8%
Unknown 7 27%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 1. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 18 December 2016.
All research outputs
#7,629,885
of 12,207,792 outputs
Outputs from Journal of Theoretical Biology
#1,709
of 2,815 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#181,621
of 330,437 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Journal of Theoretical Biology
#19
of 53 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 12,207,792 research outputs across all sources so far. This one is in the 23rd percentile – i.e., 23% of other outputs scored the same or lower than it.
So far Altmetric has tracked 2,815 research outputs from this source. They receive a mean Attention Score of 4.2. This one is in the 29th percentile – i.e., 29% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 330,437 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one is in the 35th percentile – i.e., 35% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.
We're also able to compare this research output to 53 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has gotten more attention than average, scoring higher than 50% of its contemporaries.