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The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

Overview of attention for article published in Nature, October 2013
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (98th percentile)

Citations

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253 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
902 Mendeley
citeulike
7 CiteULike
Title
The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
Published in
Nature, October 2013
DOI 10.1038/nature12540
Pubmed ID
Authors

Camilo Mora, Abby G. Frazier, Ryan J. Longman, Rachel S. Dacks, Maya M. Walton, Eric J. Tong, Joseph J. Sanchez, Lauren R. Kaiser, Yuko O. Stender, James M. Anderson, Christine M. Ambrosino, Iria Fernandez-Silva, Louise M. Giuseffi, Thomas W. Giambelluca, Mora C, Frazier AG, Longman RJ, Dacks RS, Walton MM, Tong EJ, Sanchez JJ, Kaiser LR, Stender YO, Anderson JM, Ambrosino CM, Fernandez-Silva I, Giuseffi LM, Giambelluca TW, Mora, Camilo, Frazier, Abby G., Longman, Ryan J., Dacks, Rachel S., Walton, Maya M., Tong, Eric J., Sanchez, Joseph J., Kaiser, Lauren R., Stender, Yuko O., Anderson, James M., Ambrosino, Christine M., Fernandez-Silva, Iria, Giuseffi, Louise M., Giambelluca, Thomas W.

Abstract

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 283 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 902 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 30 3%
United Kingdom 17 2%
Canada 16 2%
Germany 8 <1%
Australia 6 <1%
Brazil 6 <1%
India 5 <1%
China 5 <1%
Spain 4 <1%
Other 43 5%
Unknown 762 84%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 256 28%
Student > Ph. D. Student 222 25%
Student > Master 109 12%
Professor > Associate Professor 54 6%
Professor 52 6%
Other 209 23%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 270 30%
Environmental Science 240 27%
Earth and Planetary Sciences 186 21%
Unspecified 67 7%
Engineering 33 4%
Other 106 12%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 939. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 05 July 2018.
All research outputs
#3,288
of 11,779,489 outputs
Outputs from Nature
#591
of 60,293 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#37
of 155,969 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Nature
#12
of 1,047 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 11,779,489 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 60,293 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 72.6. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 155,969 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 1,047 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 98% of its contemporaries.