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The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

Overview of attention for article published in Nature, October 2013
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  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (98th percentile)

Readers on

mendeley
851 Mendeley
citeulike
7 CiteULike
Title
The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
Published in
Nature, October 2013
DOI 10.1038/nature12540
Pubmed ID
Authors

Camilo Mora, Abby G. Frazier, Ryan J. Longman, Rachel S. Dacks, Maya M. Walton, Eric J. Tong, Joseph J. Sanchez, Lauren R. Kaiser, Yuko O. Stender, James M. Anderson, Christine M. Ambrosino, Iria Fernandez-Silva, Louise M. Giuseffi, Thomas W. Giambelluca, Mora C, Frazier AG, Longman RJ, Dacks RS, Walton MM, Tong EJ, Sanchez JJ, Kaiser LR, Stender YO, Anderson JM, Ambrosino CM, Fernandez-Silva I, Giuseffi LM, Giambelluca TW, Mora, Camilo, Frazier, Abby G., Longman, Ryan J., Dacks, Rachel S., Walton, Maya M., Tong, Eric J., Sanchez, Joseph J., Kaiser, Lauren R., Stender, Yuko O., Anderson, James M., Ambrosino, Christine M., Fernandez-Silva, Iria, Giuseffi, Louise M., Giambelluca, Thomas W.

Abstract

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 285 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 851 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 31 4%
United Kingdom 17 2%
Canada 16 2%
Germany 8 <1%
Brazil 8 <1%
Australia 6 <1%
India 5 <1%
China 5 <1%
Spain 4 <1%
Other 43 5%
Unknown 708 83%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 246 29%
Student > Ph. D. Student 209 25%
Student > Master 104 12%
Professor > Associate Professor 52 6%
Professor 47 6%
Other 193 23%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 259 30%
Environmental Science 231 27%
Earth and Planetary Sciences 177 21%
Unspecified 53 6%
Engineering 31 4%
Other 100 12%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 945. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 25 July 2017.
All research outputs
#2,763
of 9,726,044 outputs
Outputs from Nature
#536
of 51,367 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#38
of 149,110 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Nature
#12
of 1,050 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 9,726,044 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 51,367 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 77.5. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 98% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 149,110 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 1,050 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 98% of its contemporaries.