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The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

Overview of attention for article published in Nature, October 2013
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  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (98th percentile)

Readers on

mendeley
752 Mendeley
citeulike
7 CiteULike
Title
The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
Published in
Nature, October 2013
DOI 10.1038/nature12540
Pubmed ID
Authors

Camilo Mora, Abby G. Frazier, Ryan J. Longman, Rachel S. Dacks, Maya M. Walton, Eric J. Tong, Joseph J. Sanchez, Lauren R. Kaiser, Yuko O. Stender, James M. Anderson, Christine M. Ambrosino, Iria Fernandez-Silva, Louise M. Giuseffi, Thomas W. Giambelluca, Mora C, Frazier AG, Longman RJ, Dacks RS, Walton MM, Tong EJ, Sanchez JJ, Kaiser LR, Stender YO, Anderson JM, Ambrosino CM, Fernandez-Silva I, Giuseffi LM, Giambelluca TW, Mora, Camilo, Frazier, Abby G., Longman, Ryan J., Dacks, Rachel S., Walton, Maya M., Tong, Eric J., Sanchez, Joseph J., Kaiser, Lauren R., Stender, Yuko O., Anderson, James M., Ambrosino, Christine M., Fernandez-Silva, Iria, Giuseffi, Louise M., Giambelluca, Thomas W.

Abstract

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 290 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 752 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 33 4%
United Kingdom 16 2%
Canada 13 2%
Germany 6 <1%
Australia 6 <1%
Brazil 5 <1%
India 4 <1%
France 4 <1%
China 4 <1%
Other 39 5%
Unknown 622 83%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 217 29%
Student > Ph. D. Student 194 26%
Student > Master 95 13%
Professor > Associate Professor 50 7%
Professor 42 6%
Other 154 20%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 243 32%
Environmental Science 216 29%
Earth and Planetary Sciences 173 23%
Engineering 29 4%
Social Sciences 21 3%
Other 70 9%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 956. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 10 May 2017.
All research outputs
#1,787
of 7,943,547 outputs
Outputs from Nature
#415
of 46,773 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#30
of 141,867 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Nature
#12
of 1,051 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 7,943,547 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 46,773 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 72.4. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 141,867 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 1,051 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 98% of its contemporaries.