The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

Overview of attention for article published in Nature, October 2013
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  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (98th percentile)

Readers on

mendeley
726 Mendeley
citeulike
7 CiteULike
Title
The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
Published in
Nature, October 2013
DOI 10.1038/nature12540
Pubmed ID
Authors

Camilo Mora, Abby G. Frazier, Ryan J. Longman, Rachel S. Dacks, Maya M. Walton, Eric J. Tong, Joseph J. Sanchez, Lauren R. Kaiser, Yuko O. Stender, James M. Anderson, Christine M. Ambrosino, Iria Fernandez-Silva, Louise M. Giuseffi, Thomas W. Giambelluca, Mora C, Frazier AG, Longman RJ, Dacks RS, Walton MM, Tong EJ, Sanchez JJ, Kaiser LR, Stender YO, Anderson JM, Ambrosino CM, Fernandez-Silva I, Giuseffi LM, Giambelluca TW

Abstract

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 290 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 726 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 35 5%
United Kingdom 17 2%
Canada 13 2%
Brazil 9 1%
Germany 8 1%
Australia 6 <1%
India 5 <1%
France 4 <1%
China 4 <1%
Other 42 6%
Unknown 583 80%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 211 29%
Student > Ph. D. Student 183 25%
Student > Master 93 13%
Professor > Associate Professor 51 7%
Professor 43 6%
Other 145 20%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 233 32%
Environmental Science 209 29%
Earth and Planetary Sciences 169 23%
Engineering 29 4%
Social Sciences 17 2%
Other 69 10%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 956. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 03 February 2017.
All research outputs
#1,502
of 7,421,170 outputs
Outputs from Nature
#386
of 45,460 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#30
of 139,308 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Nature
#12
of 1,053 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 7,421,170 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 45,460 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 69.8. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 139,308 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 1,053 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 98% of its contemporaries.