Title |
Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States
|
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Published in |
Science, June 2017
|
DOI | 10.1126/science.aal4369 |
Pubmed ID | |
Authors |
Solomon Hsiang, Robert Kopp, Amir Jina, James Rising, Michael Delgado, Shashank Mohan, D J Rasmussen, Robert Muir-Wood, Paul Wilson, Michael Oppenheimer, Kate Larsen, Trevor Houser |
Abstract |
Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors-agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor-increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). |
X Demographics
Geographical breakdown
Country | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
United States | 538 | 37% |
Canada | 65 | 4% |
United Kingdom | 44 | 3% |
Australia | 22 | 2% |
Japan | 21 | 1% |
France | 12 | <1% |
Italy | 10 | <1% |
Germany | 8 | <1% |
Spain | 8 | <1% |
Other | 105 | 7% |
Unknown | 624 | 43% |
Demographic breakdown
Type | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Members of the public | 1163 | 80% |
Scientists | 205 | 14% |
Science communicators (journalists, bloggers, editors) | 66 | 5% |
Practitioners (doctors, other healthcare professionals) | 18 | 1% |
Unknown | 5 | <1% |
Mendeley readers
Geographical breakdown
Country | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
United States | 1 | <1% |
Germany | 1 | <1% |
South Africa | 1 | <1% |
Unknown | 1393 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Student > Ph. D. Student | 285 | 20% |
Researcher | 214 | 15% |
Student > Master | 182 | 13% |
Student > Bachelor | 90 | 6% |
Student > Doctoral Student | 68 | 5% |
Other | 227 | 16% |
Unknown | 330 | 24% |
Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Environmental Science | 193 | 14% |
Economics, Econometrics and Finance | 158 | 11% |
Earth and Planetary Sciences | 109 | 8% |
Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 100 | 7% |
Social Sciences | 99 | 7% |
Other | 326 | 23% |
Unknown | 411 | 29% |