Regime change detection in irregularly sampled time series. https://t.co/W1W62DnEpx
This made me remember an article by colleague @LovejoyShaun with a hilarious title: "Harnessing Butterflies: Theory and Practice of the Stochastic Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS)" https://t.co/NIi5VnxVPZ
@nmrqip Failure to properly account for the autocorrelation function and short tail assumptions which can affect such tail risks by orders of magnitude. We've not addressed this specific case but principles of analysis described here 👇 https://t.co/8xqVT9C
@dougmcneall @shubclimate @etzpcm @lucialiljegren @ClimateAudit @richardabetts @WEschenbach @ed_hawkins @clivehbest @LeoHickman @ClimateOfGavin @markpmcc @StottPeter @pbett @GuyCallendar @RMetS Luckily there are methods available which do not rely on GCMs