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Mendeley readers
Attention Score in Context
| Title |
Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
BMC Public Health, February 2015
|
| DOI | 10.1186/s12889-015-1416-z |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Olfa Saidi, Martin O’Flaherty, Nadia Ben Mansour, Wafa Aissi, Olfa Lassoued, Simon Capewell, Julia A Critchley, Dhafer Malouche, Habiba Ben Romdhane, on behalf of EC FP7 funded MEDCHAMPS project |
| Abstract |
Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys. |
X Demographics
The data shown below were collected from the profile of 1 X user who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Unknown | 1 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
| Type | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Members of the public | 1 | 100% |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 93 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 1 | 1% |
| United States | 1 | 1% |
| Unknown | 91 | 98% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Student > Doctoral Student | 13 | 14% |
| Researcher | 12 | 13% |
| Student > Master | 10 | 11% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 8 | 9% |
| Student > Bachelor | 6 | 6% |
| Other | 15 | 16% |
| Unknown | 29 | 31% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Medicine and Dentistry | 23 | 25% |
| Social Sciences | 7 | 8% |
| Nursing and Health Professions | 6 | 6% |
| Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology | 4 | 4% |
| Engineering | 4 | 4% |
| Other | 18 | 19% |
| Unknown | 31 | 33% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 1. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 08 February 2015.
All research outputs
#20,258,256
of 22,787,797 outputs
Outputs from BMC Public Health
#13,882
of 14,854 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#296,691
of 352,561 outputs
Outputs of similar age from BMC Public Health
#202
of 220 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 22,787,797 research outputs across all sources so far. This one is in the 1st percentile – i.e., 1% of other outputs scored the same or lower than it.
So far Altmetric has tracked 14,854 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 13.9. This one is in the 1st percentile – i.e., 1% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
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We're also able to compare this research output to 220 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 1st percentile – i.e., 1% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.