Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

Overview of attention for article published in Science Advances, February 2015
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • One of the highest-scoring outputs from this source (#9 of 853)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (96th percentile)

Readers on

mendeley
318 Mendeley
citeulike
6 CiteULike
Title
Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains
Published in
Science Advances, February 2015
DOI 10.1126/sciadv.1400082
Pubmed ID
Authors

Benjamin I. Cook, Toby R. Ault, Jason E. Smerdon

Abstract

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing crucial targets in the paleoclimate record for benchmarking the severity of future drought risks. We use an empirical drought reconstruction and three soil moisture metrics from 17 state-of-the-art general circulation models to show that these models project significantly drier conditions in the later half of the 21st century compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This desiccation is consistent across most of the models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust drying response to warming despite the diversity of models and metrics analyzed. Notably, future drought risk will likely exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100-1300 CE) in both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) future emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 355 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 318 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 35 11%
Germany 3 <1%
Canada 3 <1%
Switzerland 1 <1%
France 1 <1%
Australia 1 <1%
United Kingdom 1 <1%
Denmark 1 <1%
Brazil 1 <1%
Other 1 <1%
Unknown 270 85%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 94 30%
Student > Ph. D. Student 89 28%
Student > Master 43 14%
Student > Bachelor 23 7%
Professor > Associate Professor 22 7%
Other 47 15%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Environmental Science 102 32%
Earth and Planetary Sciences 90 28%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 81 25%
Social Sciences 11 3%
Engineering 6 2%
Other 28 9%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 1099. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 17 February 2017.
All research outputs
#1,094
of 7,410,278 outputs
Outputs from Science Advances
#9
of 853 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#53
of 237,217 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Science Advances
#1
of 28 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 7,410,278 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 853 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 134.0. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 98% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 237,217 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 28 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 96% of its contemporaries.