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Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

Overview of attention for article published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, March 2015
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • One of the highest-scoring outputs from this source (#4 of 45,308)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (99th percentile)

Mentioned by

news
137 news outlets
blogs
62 blogs
policy
6 policy sources
twitter
2020 tweeters
facebook
45 Facebook pages
wikipedia
1 Wikipedia page
googleplus
8 Google+ users
reddit
4 Redditors

Readers on

mendeley
504 Mendeley
citeulike
9 CiteULike
Title
Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought
Published in
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, March 2015
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1421533112
Pubmed ID
Authors

Colin P. Kelley, Shahrzad Mohtadi, Mark A. Cane, Richard Seager, Yochanan Kushnir, Colin P Kelley, Mark A Cane, Kelley CP, Mohtadi S, Cane MA, Seager R, Kushnir Y, Kelley, Colin P, Mohtadi, Shahrzad, Cane, Mark A, Seager, Richard, Kushnir, Yochanan, , Shahrzad Zarrin Mohtadi, Colin Patrick Kelley

Abstract

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 2,020 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 504 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 14 3%
United Kingdom 8 2%
Germany 7 1%
Canada 4 <1%
Colombia 3 <1%
Australia 2 <1%
Netherlands 2 <1%
Portugal 2 <1%
Switzerland 2 <1%
Other 12 2%
Unknown 448 89%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Ph. D. Student 123 24%
Student > Master 116 23%
Researcher 95 19%
Student > Bachelor 46 9%
Student > Doctoral Student 26 5%
Other 98 19%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Environmental Science 135 27%
Earth and Planetary Sciences 89 18%
Social Sciences 85 17%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 61 12%
Engineering 28 6%
Other 106 21%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 3208. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 19 June 2017.
All research outputs
#61
of 7,944,325 outputs
Outputs from Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
#4
of 45,308 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#4
of 200,492 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
#1
of 931 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 7,944,325 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 45,308 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 23.3. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 200,492 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 931 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.