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Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

Overview of attention for article published in Ecological Applications, January 2011
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (98th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (99th percentile)

Mentioned by

news
6 news outlets
blogs
2 blogs
twitter
5 tweeters
wikipedia
4 Wikipedia pages

Citations

dimensions_citation
44 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
128 Mendeley
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Title
Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction
Published in
Ecological Applications, January 2011
DOI 10.1890/09-1800.1
Pubmed ID
Authors

Kenneth L. Cole, Kirsten Ironside, Jon Eischeid, Gregg Garfin, Phillip B. Duffy, Chris Toney

Abstract

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed approximately 11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of approximately 1 km and approximately 4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically Complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and fuiture distributions.

Twitter Demographics

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Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 128 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 8 6%
Brazil 2 2%
Australia 1 <1%
Italy 1 <1%
France 1 <1%
Unknown 115 90%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Ph. D. Student 34 27%
Researcher 30 23%
Student > Master 15 12%
Student > Bachelor 11 9%
Professor > Associate Professor 9 7%
Other 17 13%
Unknown 12 9%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 46 36%
Environmental Science 36 28%
Earth and Planetary Sciences 16 13%
Social Sciences 4 3%
Business, Management and Accounting 3 2%
Other 11 9%
Unknown 12 9%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 69. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 02 October 2021.
All research outputs
#420,967
of 19,368,131 outputs
Outputs from Ecological Applications
#98
of 2,959 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#1,827
of 127,982 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Ecological Applications
#1
of 32 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 19,368,131 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 97th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 2,959 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 13.2. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 96% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 127,982 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 98% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 32 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.