SWITCH-China: A Systems Approach to Decarbonizing China’s Power System

Gang He, Anne-Perrine Avrin, James H. Nelson, Josiah Johnston, Ana Mileva, Jianwei Tian, Daniel M. Kammen

We present an integrated model, SWITCH-China, of the Chinese power sector to analyze the economic and technological implications of a medium to long-term decarbonization scenario while accounting for very short-term renewable variability. Based on the model and assumptions used, we find that the announced 2030 carbon peak can be achieved with a carbon price of ~$40/tCO2. Current trends in renewable energy price reductions alone are insufficient to replace coal, however, an 80% carbon emission reduction by 2050 is achievable in the IPCC Target Scenario with an optimal electricity mix in 2050 including nuclear (14%), wind (23%), solar (27%), hydro (6%), gas (1%), coal (3%), CCS coal (26%). The co-benefits of carbon-price strategy would offset 22% to 42% of the increased electricity costs if the true cost of coal and social cost of carbon are incorporated. In such a scenario, aggressive attention to research and both technological and financial innovation mechanisms are crucial to enable the transition at reasonable cost, along with strong carbon policies.