1/ Heading into the Superwahljahr 2024 (engl. super election year) when more than 2.6 billion people worldwide will be asked to cast a ballot, @pete_enns and I made our forecast (49/50 states pred. correctly) of the US pres. election 2020 open-access http
This project builds on our past election forecast work: https://t.co/sAoOgsI9w2 and https://t.co/aSSFv3YPfZ
9/ Interested in how we've used the data? Check out some of our publications. Looking forward to seeing what you discover! "Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model"(https://t.co/qW8Q4lA6tP)
RT @ps_polisci: New in @ps_polisci: Based on almost 90,000 survey questions, 41 years of economic data, and 70,000 simulations @pete_enns &…
This work is related to our forecast from July 2020 published in @ps_polisci in which we predicted 50/51 states+ DC correctly (our one miss was Georgia) @pol4casting https://t.co/qW8Q4lA6tP
Thanks, @LindaGlaser1! Here's the full predictions w/ @JuliusLagodny from 104 days before the election: https://t.co/GCBNJqDzAk.
RT @pete_enns: Ungated version of the forecast w/ @JuliusLagodny here: https://t.co/mAe6UVhDPg. https://t.co/wP2ieimDnS
RT @pete_enns: Ungated version of the forecast w/ @JuliusLagodny here: https://t.co/mAe6UVhDPg.
RT @pete_enns: Ungated version of the forecast w/ @JuliusLagodny here: https://t.co/mAe6UVhDPg.
Ungated version of the forecast w/ @JuliusLagodny here: https://t.co/mAe6UVhDPg.
here is the full model/paper: https://t.co/0BpYJ5al0w https://t.co/EQj7VYYLrH
This beautiful plot is from @pete_enns and @JuliusLagodny's forecast and shows their state-by-state forecasting. According to them, Wisconsin, Arizona and, of course, Floria are among the decisive states. https://t.co/J1LAqhzhZw https://t.co/FQ7zNHbMSd
Das Modell von @pete_enns und mir kann man übrigens in @ps_polisci nachlesen: #FreeAccess #pol4casting2020 https://t.co/0BpYJ5al0w
feel free to read our analysis in the symposium issue of @ps_polisci (and many more excellent forecasts!) https://t.co/M3WeoVTqCm
RT @pete_enns: Results of latest @MonmouthPoll in Iowa align almost exactly w/ @JuliusLagodny and my early @ps_polisci forecast: https://t.…
RT @pete_enns: Results of latest @MonmouthPoll in Iowa align almost exactly w/ @JuliusLagodny and my early @ps_polisci forecast: https://t.…
Results of latest @MonmouthPoll in Iowa align almost exactly w/ @JuliusLagodny and my early @ps_polisci forecast: https://t.co/hZtUkGrl5J
Biden currently outspending Trump in multiple states including all 4 states (AZ, WI, IA, and FL) we forecasted with the closest margins. https://t.co/FvdTVdaudm
RT @pete_enns: Here's our state-by-state forecast: https://t.co/semLqaGz0X (Height of distribution=EC importance)
RT @pete_enns: Here's our state-by-state forecast: https://t.co/semLqaGz0X (Height of distribution=EC importance)
Here's our state-by-state forecast: https://t.co/semLqaGz0X (Height of distribution=EC importance)
RT @CUP_PoliSci: MT @ps_polisci: New: Based on almost 90,000 survey questions, 41 years of economic data, and 70,000 simulations @pete_enns…
RT @CUP_PoliSci: MT @ps_polisci: New: Based on almost 90,000 survey questions, 41 years of economic data, and 70,000 simulations @pete_enns…
MT @ps_polisci: New: Based on almost 90,000 survey questions, 41 years of economic data, and 70,000 simulations @pete_enns & @JuliusLagodny forecast Biden/Harris will win the popular vote and Electoral College. https://t.co/M2yPpXDWvW https://t.co/cE5
RT @ps_polisci: New in @ps_polisci: Based on almost 90,000 survey questions, 41 years of economic data, and 70,000 simulations @pete_enns &…
RT @ps_polisci: New in @ps_polisci: Based on almost 90,000 survey questions, 41 years of economic data, and 70,000 simulations @pete_enns &…
RT @ps_polisci: New in @ps_polisci: Based on almost 90,000 survey questions, 41 years of economic data, and 70,000 simulations @pete_enns &…
RT @JuliusLagodny: Super excited to see this paper with @pete_enns online! Thank you @r_dassonneville @CharlesPTien @ps_polisci for organiz…
RT @ps_polisci: New in @ps_polisci: Based on almost 90,000 survey questions, 41 years of economic data, and 70,000 simulations @pete_enns &…
RT @JuliusLagodny: Super excited to see this paper with @pete_enns online! Thank you @r_dassonneville @CharlesPTien @ps_polisci for organiz…
RT @JuliusLagodny: Super excited to see this paper with @pete_enns online! Thank you @r_dassonneville @CharlesPTien @ps_polisci for organiz…
RT @ps_polisci: New in @ps_polisci: Based on almost 90,000 survey questions, 41 years of economic data, and 70,000 simulations @pete_enns &…
RT @ps_polisci: New in @ps_polisci: Based on almost 90,000 survey questions, 41 years of economic data, and 70,000 simulations @pete_enns &…
RT @JuliusLagodny: Super excited to see this paper with @pete_enns online! Thank you @r_dassonneville @CharlesPTien @ps_polisci for organiz…
Super excited to see this paper with @pete_enns online! Thank you @r_dassonneville @CharlesPTien @ps_polisci for organizing the symposium!
New in @ps_polisci: Based on almost 90,000 survey questions, 41 years of economic data, and 70,000 simulations @pete_enns & @JuliusLagodny forecast Biden/Harris will win the popular vote and Electoral College. https://t.co/N1yTpVweOV https://t.co/Lycw
RT @r_dassonneville: Next, @pete_enns and @JuliusLagodny rely on MRP to obtain estimates of presidential approval in each state, allowing t…
RT @r_dassonneville: Next, @pete_enns and @JuliusLagodny rely on MRP to obtain estimates of presidential approval in each state, allowing t…
RT @r_dassonneville: Next, @pete_enns and @JuliusLagodny rely on MRP to obtain estimates of presidential approval in each state, allowing t…
RT @r_dassonneville: Next, @pete_enns and @JuliusLagodny rely on MRP to obtain estimates of presidential approval in each state, allowing t…
Next, @pete_enns and @JuliusLagodny rely on MRP to obtain estimates of presidential approval in each state, allowing them to build their State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model. They forecast Biden will win popular vote and electoral college 12/n