Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality https://t.co/QJe1g1Eq6X
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@VAhoniemi Hegre, et. al (2013) uudemmassa julkaisussa: "the performance of the model somewhat poorer than originally claimed". Luulen asiantuntijoilla on jo riittävästi haasteitta arviomaan "changes to political institutions" Venäjällä. https://t.co/LfW1X
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@Noahpinion Evaluation of those same forecasts 9 years on: https://t.co/aqoRunTwZr
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RT @MicahZenko: In ISQ, Uppsala scholars revisit their public predictions for internal armed conflict, 2010-2018. Better predictive accurac…