RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @ArditiMd: New estimate of contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2,. They calculate the reproduction number" (R0) to be ~5.7 -way higher than flu o…
RT @ArditiMd: New estimate of contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2,. They calculate the reproduction number" (R0) to be ~5.7 -way higher than flu o…
RT @ArditiMd: New estimate of contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2,. They calculate the reproduction number" (R0) to be ~5.7 -way higher than flu o…
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @victornizet: New estimate of the of the "basic reproduction number" (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 at 5.7 Way higher than Flu (1.0-2.0) or Ebola (…
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
RT @nataliexdean: Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al…
One study estimated, the virus spread with an R0 of 5.7 — a catastrophically high figure. https://t.co/ywDdQpNyno https://t.co/qjdivghHnH
Point #1. There is still way too much uncertainty. What even is R0? Remember that R0 is context-specific. Britton et al use 2.5 as an example, which could be appropriate for certain populations, but I've seen credible estimates of 3.0 or higher. 5/ https
RT @victornizet: New estimate of the of the "basic reproduction number" (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 at 5.7 Way higher than Flu (1.0-2.0) or Ebola (…
RT @victornizet: New estimate of the of the "basic reproduction number" (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 at 5.7 Way higher than Flu (1.0-2.0) or Ebola (…
RT @victornizet: New estimate of the of the "basic reproduction number" (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 at 5.7 Way higher than Flu (1.0-2.0) or Ebola (…
RT @victornizet: New estimate of the of the "basic reproduction number" (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 at 5.7 Way higher than Flu (1.0-2.0) or Ebola (…
Mañana, mi artículo sobre esto 👇 En el Diario Montañés #Santander #Cantabria https://t.co/hV28hGKAIR https://t.co/Yrgs17BUy7
RT @victornizet: New estimate of the of the "basic reproduction number" (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 at 5.7 Way higher than Flu (1.0-2.0) or Ebola (…
New estimate of the of the "basic reproduction number" (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 at 5.7 Way higher than Flu (1.0-2.0) or Ebola (1.5-2.5) More like SMALLPOX or POLIO "High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of SARS-CoV-2" @CDC_EIDjournal @LosAlamosNatLab @ke_lab h
RT @iddux: New estimate of R0 for COVID19: 5.7. https://t.co/QEys7dZ0md via @CDCgov
New estimate of R0 for COVID19: 5.7. https://t.co/QEys7dZ0md via @CDCgov
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
Tiens tiens ! une étude du @CDCgov qui ré analyse les données chinoises et trouvé un R0 à plus de 4 voire 5...on se rapproche d’une virus de transmission #airborne ! Pas la rougeole bien sur mais comme la variole. #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 https://t.co/3DqEMyjv
@MisterPatrick1 https://t.co/tsfKTurp9A “Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9).”
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 https://t.co/H3SlNUrkfg
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
Thanks to @mlipsitch to prompt reread. Option guys see variability of R0 and serial days as vega and theta change, then "trade" CV19. CV19 is ferocious initially, like a 100% vega, social distancing etc does little. Swedish Herd Immunity model only way.
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
Flockimmunitet kan ligga på höga procent: 80% i en perfekt blandad befolkning
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
RT @mlipsitch: 3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling tim…
3. There is respectable work that suggests R0 more in range of 4-5 or more https://t.co/P6sJOH3fe5 with faster doubling time than early reports and longer generation time than appreciated Bc most estimates included effects of control which shortens gen ti
Here's the CDC study which gives the "catastrophically high figure" of 5.7. Didn't read it carefully, but it looks like good, careful, work to me. 5.7 is close to the values I estimate for the UK, but too high for India (I get ~3 to 4 for India). https://t
@MalcolmJones14 @jaketapper https://t.co/8ah3AJIvyB This is a cdc study from April calculating an R0 of 5.7. So let’s assume it is in 65% range for arguents sake. That’s still 228 million ish that need to be naturally inoculated for herd immunity to work.
@timrouth If there is one thing about corona that everyone agrees on, it is its high contagiousness. Without mitigation, it spreads like wildfire. https://t.co/ISTGQeq2dU
New study in Emerging Infectious Disease journal puts #COVID19 R0 @ 5.7 in China. Nearly triple original estimate of 2.2. https://t.co/c4ODaYM5UL
@oatila Está no ar um "Early Release" de um artigo a ser publicado pelo CDC USA. https://t.co/7MipJS6Dzu R0 de Wuhan revisado para 5,7 (95% CI 3,8-8,9)
@Manning4USCong @dtwyman @mugecevik Rapid release study suggesting initial R0 of 5.7 in Wuhan: https://t.co/GnIC31gGYT Again, R0 "may be" 4-5x the flu. It is at least double.
@HARRISFAULKNER Deaths are a trailing indicator. The time from infection to death is estimated to be 3 weeks. Deaths occurring now are from infections around April 16th. c.c.: @MelissaAFrancis https://t.co/8Z5TJgVWjK https://t.co/6vU8VzLsON
@MontaSince @DSFan1998 @AmelynRandall @ArianaZariah @katie_did_it It doesn’t add up for it to be as early as November though with an R0 of /2.2-5.7 meaning 1 person spreads to 2-6 people so our cases should be even higher https://t.co/1McDP1OQXE to learn a
RT @DaveScoff: @BpsmithUk @Michael57229696 They could ask the CDC, who have published it as 5.7 for COVID. https://t.co/7Q8J7qNdp8
@bopanc @institutpasteur Indeed. "we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)." https://t.co/MgVqUX9hVp
@BpsmithUk @Michael57229696 They could ask the CDC, who have published it as 5.7 for COVID. https://t.co/7Q8J7qNdp8
Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC https://t.co/J2RtbgKGZD
@nntaleb They did not get that this is fat tailed (superspreaders). https://t.co/NF00j2XQbT Someday I will be able to attend RWRI . https://t.co/5kkRkbZ213
RT @carbauche: Habría que sacar, de los datos del Dr Narro, la velocidad de duplicación de casos actual. La duplicación de casos covid (p…
@fsujend @NumbZombieMom @thedailybeast No, that's a good point. 18 seems a bit high. A study in China shows 16 days: https://t.co/sOXkQ5chjk The study of the 1st 21 US deaths was only 3.5 days: (!) https://t.co/rUe1AYza1T It's probably somewhere between
@psolisaqui Aquí uno, sin intervención, se duplicarían los casos cada 3 días. Ahorita se duplican cada 11, usando la misma gráfica de Narro. https://t.co/EAsiFjtd3m
Habría que sacar, de los datos del Dr Narro, la velocidad de duplicación de casos actual. La duplicación de casos covid (por ej de 6500 a 13000, y luego 26000), SIN intervención, requiere de 2.3 a 3.3 días para duplicarse. R=5.7 (pers. contagiadas) htt
@JoseNarroR @HLGatell @lumendoz @jorgeramosnews @beltrandelrio @CarlosLoret @V_TrujilloM @SergioSarmiento @LuisCardenasMx @JoseCardenas1 @azucenau @JavierSolorzano Tenemos un Ritmo reproductivo básico de ¿Cuánto calcula? Sin intervención, entiendo que se
@Jaytonbye @RichardIrving2 @Nicwix @mlipsitch @neil_ferguson for comparison us cdc paper on NPI https://t.co/uSP9LvQzPv
@ProfPCDoherty Even scarier: revised upwards Ro ~ 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9) 1.4% case fatality rate in Australia as of May 5 Very worrying / need huge contact tracing teams https://t.co/Svw06Tbee5
@angie_rasmussen @EdCara4 @Gizmodo @BillHanage How does that square with this paper? "given the uncertainties in these estimations, we estimated that the median of estimated R0 is 5.7 (95% CI of 3.8–8.9)" https://t.co/UyN80NPtWW
Información importante 🧐 https://t.co/ftoOVeS5Xe
RT @LosAlamosNatLab: Los Alamos researchers have calculated the spread of #COVID19 at a median R0 value of 5.7, and show that active survei…
@DocDellaire @jwoodgett @RayTruant According to CDC threshold could be as high at 82%. See https://t.co/7S6zbZ1KPq
@rstrongdoctor @faisalislam That study is two months old. US CDC reports time from symptom onset to death of 16.1 days and incubation of 4.2 days. So ~20 days from infection to death. However, people were already modifying their behaviour before lockdow
A recent early release of a study published in the Emerging Infectious Diseases journal suggests the R0 of #COVID19 may have a median value of 5.7. This puts the threshold for achieving #HerdImmunity closer to ~82% of the population. #India https://t
@NateSilver538 Read this cdc report and think again https://t.co/uSP9LvQzPv ... > The median R0 is 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9) <... https://t.co/cRpHfEz1xZ
当時CDCの文献を見てた人なら、serial intervalの世界標準の数値が4日、というのを主張していたと思いますかね?w 中央値「R0=5.7」は恐怖を煽動するべく拡散されたろ?w で、利用されたserial intervalは6~9日だったのでは? 世界標準ですって?w ならCDCなりロスアラモスに文句言えよw
@joural81 @GeorgeTakei https://t.co/erg2fev1Ym Here's their studies. Inform yourself.
Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC https://t.co/cy1P9qBhvm via @CDCgov
@hilltothesouth @RevShark Virus reproduction number is how many new cases are generated by spread from an existing infected person. Early estimates in January for Covid-19 placed virus reproduction at between 1.4 - 2.5 More recent analysis based on Wuhan
RT @tmprowell: Bad news here. Data from distinct sources suggesting R0 (# of people each infected person will themselves infect) is btwn 5-…
Aqui o estudo falando em R0~ 5,7 https://t.co/LTUMopEGLb Pra você reduzir algo de 5,7 pra 1 (achatar a curva) vai precisar de 80%> da população em casa. Isso já para a economia. Subindo isso, você tem a supressão - que, ao contrário do achatar a curva
@CalboEsther This strikes me as unpersuasive. Not every airborne disease is measles; TB epidemics, for example, feature attack rates on par with more recent COVID r0 rate calculations(see below: R0 value of 5.7 vs TB r0=5). https://t.co/EZDukm9jm6 (comp
Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC https://t.co/8M5Tk6bbqO via @CDCgov
RT @marco4357: El #COVID19 es un virus muy contagioso. El Ro fue actualizado a ~5.7, lo que implica que una persona puede infectar a 6 más.…
RT @MonknMagic: @MLKrealSJW @moinqueens @ADifferentCat @davidfrum Ebola has an R0 between 1.3-1.8 SARS-CoV-2 has been estimated to have an…
RT @WestEssexNOW: 🔷 STUDY: ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, CHINA - LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LABORATORY, NM, US Scientists studied 140 of the earliest cases…
🔷 STUDY: ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, CHINA - LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LABORATORY, NM, US Scientists studied 140 of the earliest cases of SARS-CoV-2 across China ▪️ High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 https://t.co/H
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome #Coronavirus 2 https://t.co/HmmEW2EgwM
@rikusayuj @sachin_s_gupta @ShamikaRavi @MoHFW_INDIA @covid19indiaorg Can some learning’s be derived from this? https://t.co/hlySTer6Gt
@NYGovCuomo Yes, heed the science. https://t.co/gVhvfStvjy