RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
"Annual winter peaks"
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
This is exactly why schools must begin earlier for 22/23. Begin classes on August 1, then make holiday break stretch from Thanksgiving to 2nd week in January. Schools need to start planning and announcing this ASAP. @NYCSchools @DOEChancellor
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
RT @PeterHotez: 2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pande…
2/6 SCENARIO #1. Annual winter peaks. This was put forward by @mlipsitch and his @HarvardChanSPH team early in the pandemic, but I think it still holds up well. Arguably what's happening now is an example. Here's his 2020 paper from SCIENCE https://t.
See you unmasked in 2025? https://t.co/plV5EDqkfX
@HaMeturgeman @scottlincicome @DKThomp Other betacoronaviruses are in endemic state; CoV-2 still in pandemic. Waning immunity is factor in Omicron wave. It will simply take time for things to settle and us to "know" the long term dynamics. Here is best sum
This is cold corona patterns, two types, just for fun/interest. Vaccine whack-a-mole. From https://t.co/0Aeio7Zrbr Wheres my updated mRNA anyway? Been a while. Thought we could bang these off... https://t.co/q8W32emB0w
RT @ryanstruyk: Harvard researchers: "Under current critical care capacities, however, the overall duration of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic coul…
RT @ryanstruyk: Harvard researchers: "Under current critical care capacities, however, the overall duration of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic coul…
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period https://t.co/Gexelp49YS Moving forward as predicted..... #SARSCoV2
@JanBvanE Overgenomen van https://t.co/Gncf9prL0B
@MortenCCIT @AHeissel @henrik_ullum Nu er det godt nok et gammelt studie, men se her fx: https://t.co/gUg9jI5UtN
Remember this one? I remember reading it and thinking this is a very likely scenario (re: seasonality). Seasonality is actually a good thing from a prediction and forecasting perspective. https://t.co/2Epfb9lj6Q
I don’t know why people keep expecting to get long term immunity from their Covid19 vaccines 🤷🏻 this is from the standard textbook Fields Virology showing limited immune memory. We also have highly cited papers. https://t.co/uAJesc6NRG https://t.co/XSu7XAG
@akheriaty We maintained lockdowns and other NPIs for too long. Some effectively reduced R0, some where for show, and some made things worse. But, suppressing R0 for too long has led to higher secondary peaks. https://t.co/YW0dtyqww8
@Pravduh15 @DanielleFong we have known for many years (see from Fields Virology i.e. classic textbook) that immunity to coronaviruses are not long lasting. I don't know why anyone expects otherwise. This was already the expectation among those in the know
@DrKatrin_Rabiei @TeunkeA @equibotanica @DavidSteadson @CameliaDewan @CarlMattis1 @AndrewEwing11 Here is the paper on cyclic aka intermittant strategies that I mentioned yesterday. I might read it after dinner. https://t.co/oZETv7Jsnb
RT @mtizzoni: @gianlucac1 @Doom3Gloom Maggio 2020. https://t.co/tno6NFGRhn
@gianlucac1 @Doom3Gloom Maggio 2020. https://t.co/tno6NFGRhn
This cyclic strategy was once in Swedish news. Might underlie van Dissel & Tegnell on reinfection. https://t.co/oZETv7Jsnb . @DavidSteadson @CameliaDewan @CarlMattis1 @AndrewEwing11 @DrKatrin_Rabiei
@marctronico leía el año pasado en este paper que incluso 2025 https://t.co/MS0YKjkYeS
@MattWalshBlog As long as policy is to keep reverting to lockdowns, we will keep having secondary spikes. This was modeled back in May 2020. https://t.co/YW0dtyqww8
@BertWierenga2 @DiederikSmit De paper noemt ook het testen als middel om te monitoren of wat meer of minder remmen nodig is, omdat zkh-opnames te vaag zijn en een hoger risico op overschrijding capaciteit geven. Ik denk nog steeds dat daar ons “zicht op he
Hier vindt u de voor mij vroegste beschrijving van de te verwachten/mogelijke toekomstscenario's in Science ( https://t.co/FkWiUaDX6a ) alsook een recentere survey uit Nature ter zake ( https://t.co/GdWf0uEzYG ). Zie ook nog Peter Piot in De Tijd ( https:/
@ECMOKaragianni1 Lieber @ECMOKaragianni1, die Aussage, dass Saisonalität kaum eine Rolle gespielt hat, verwundern mich. In diesem Paper, das von @c_drosten im Podcast besprochen wurde, wird der Effekt auf ~40% geschätzt. Wieso denke sie, dass das in Deutsc
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period https://t.co/b0cnPOTUDl An important study back in May, 2020....things going on almost like this....peaking up,going down....only to peak again!! #COVID19
@GrahamMedley @JamesWard73 @jburnmurdoch @seahorse4000 @BristOliver @FT @cbauch1 Thanks! Yes, just hope that 100 admissions per week per million is not the endemic equilibrium... And that the figures for Portugal or Malta are... Re. the long-term endemic e
@amyweick There was a great paper in Science by the @mlipsitch group that covers this topic. It can be modeled as a 20% increase in Rt in winter. Or in season. Or, read their paper! https://t.co/xQEnYLGnzd
@Jopinie @mkeulemans @mtv_tjilpt @milenaholdert Bron: https://t.co/FItWBRmOzz Lees vooral het afsluitende tekstje rechts. https://t.co/vvS2Y4N4AM
@MichaelColey There was an @mlipsitch paper in some rag journal (I think it was Science) early in the pandemic that modeled it close to a 20% impact on Rt. https://t.co/fQY3jmF4pb
In his #2021AACC plenary, @hholdenthorp talks about @scipak's focus on communicating research from the journals to global reporters, to inspire stories that improve public understanding. A tremendously popular paper from the pandemic: https://t.co/yIfkbAKh
https://t.co/Q2FWyUiFT8 Read this article in 2020 and thought- there's no way we will still be social distancing in 2022...
acordándome de este tbt hashtag la hora sad
https://t.co/ypAPeyb9st The long-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 strongly depend on immune responses and immune cross-reactions between the coronaviruses, as well as the timing of the introduction of the new virus into a population. https://t.co/VIDExNgmvU
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period https://t.co/WP7Bf4iHEp
RT @SosNinosename1: @AXELKAISER @Carmen_E_muller Ciclo normal Covid19 No es exito vacunas Me cuenta en 3 meses más si hay "éxito" https://t…
RT @SosNinosename1: @AXELKAISER @Carmen_E_muller Ciclo normal Covid19 No es exito vacunas Me cuenta en 3 meses más si hay "éxito" https://t…
@AXELKAISER @Carmen_E_muller Ciclo normal Covid19 No es exito vacunas Me cuenta en 3 meses más si hay "éxito" https://t.co/415uahOGpX
@ernestorr Ciclo normal Covid19 No es exito vacunas Me cuenta en 3 meses más si hay "éxito" https://t.co/415uahOGpX
@ClaasPotthoff @JesseVentura86 @DerNiederbayer @KonProg Wie schon bei OC43 und HKU1 beobachtet. Immunität gegen SARS-CoV-1 wohl länger. Quelle: https://t.co/ddGpg0VR0C https://t.co/sgIYEEFP02
@Catlove40476297 @kallmemeg I would love to see an update of the model below, with parameters adapted to Delta. But the evolutionary potential & emergence of possible new variants hard to predict. Will also depend on rate of waning of immunity & av
「social distancing の成功は集中治療の Capacity を超えるか否かで、これを避けるためには、2022年まで長期に渡る、または間歇的な social distancing が必要となる。…(略)…感染再興の可能性は 2024 年まである」 https://t.co/QrGH9QYr9s
RT @Kelangdbn: パンデミック初期,2020年5月のScienceに掲載された論文 SARS CoV-2の類似ウイルスHCoV-OC43とHCoV-HKU1からの推測「RNAウイルスでは集団免疫は不可能。ワクチンを接種しても抗体の有効期間は40週。あるいは変異株が出…
RT @Kelangdbn: パンデミック初期,2020年5月のScienceに掲載された論文 SARS CoV-2の類似ウイルスHCoV-OC43とHCoV-HKU1からの推測「RNAウイルスでは集団免疫は不可能。ワクチンを接種しても抗体の有効期間は40週。あるいは変異株が出…
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period https://t.co/vOZOX5gaeq
RT @Kelangdbn: パンデミック初期,2020年5月のScienceに掲載された論文 SARS CoV-2の類似ウイルスHCoV-OC43とHCoV-HKU1からの推測「RNAウイルスでは集団免疫は不可能。ワクチンを接種しても抗体の有効期間は40週。あるいは変異株が出…
RT @Kelangdbn: パンデミック初期,2020年5月のScienceに掲載された論文 SARS CoV-2の類似ウイルスHCoV-OC43とHCoV-HKU1からの推測「RNAウイルスでは集団免疫は不可能。ワクチンを接種しても抗体の有効期間は40週。あるいは変異株が出…
RT @Kelangdbn: パンデミック初期,2020年5月のScienceに掲載された論文 SARS CoV-2の類似ウイルスHCoV-OC43とHCoV-HKU1からの推測「RNAウイルスでは集団免疫は不可能。ワクチンを接種しても抗体の有効期間は40週。あるいは変異株が出…
RT @Kelangdbn: パンデミック初期,2020年5月のScienceに掲載された論文 SARS CoV-2の類似ウイルスHCoV-OC43とHCoV-HKU1からの推測「RNAウイルスでは集団免疫は不可能。ワクチンを接種しても抗体の有効期間は40週。あるいは変異株が出…
RT @Kelangdbn: パンデミック初期,2020年5月のScienceに掲載された論文 SARS CoV-2の類似ウイルスHCoV-OC43とHCoV-HKU1からの推測「RNAウイルスでは集団免疫は不可能。ワクチンを接種しても抗体の有効期間は40週。あるいは変異株が出…
RT @Kelangdbn: パンデミック初期,2020年5月のScienceに掲載された論文 SARS CoV-2の類似ウイルスHCoV-OC43とHCoV-HKU1からの推測「RNAウイルスでは集団免疫は不可能。ワクチンを接種しても抗体の有効期間は40週。あるいは変異株が出…
去年既に予測されてたか…
RT @Kelangdbn: パンデミック初期,2020年5月のScienceに掲載された論文 SARS CoV-2の類似ウイルスHCoV-OC43とHCoV-HKU1からの推測「RNAウイルスでは集団免疫は不可能。ワクチンを接種しても抗体の有効期間は40週。あるいは変異株が出…
RT @Kelangdbn: パンデミック初期,2020年5月のScienceに掲載された論文 SARS CoV-2の類似ウイルスHCoV-OC43とHCoV-HKU1からの推測「RNAウイルスでは集団免疫は不可能。ワクチンを接種しても抗体の有効期間は40週。あるいは変異株が出…
パンデミック初期,2020年5月のScienceに掲載された論文 SARS CoV-2の類似ウイルスHCoV-OC43とHCoV-HKU1からの推測「RNAウイルスでは集団免疫は不可能。ワクチンを接種しても抗体の有効期間は40週。あるいは変異株が出現してリセット。」 https://t.co/ujjhcNyqkT
@alexandrosM I think more efforts like this that factor in the knowns of vaccine protection (and lack of, overtime) are needed. I do not think the finding that we will likely see large peaks through 2025 is off the table, even with boosters. https://t.co/E
@m_scribe I recall a longer timeline. I remember when I shared this with friends not in public health https://t.co/zGscyylTkV
@em_az @johnnybilo @golfsohard @EricTopol Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic https://t.co/qB7kOUlqSZ Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period https://t.co/h3qaYHQ8nS Se
@roelgrif @PeterSpitters @bassjobsen @YorickB @C19RedTeam @mzelst Het maken van lange-termijn scenario's met SIR modellen is tamelijk nutteloos als je beleid wil maken met voorzorg omdat deze modellen niet de kleine kans op iets heel ergs omvatten. Toch he
RT @ken_sugar: ▼「外出自粛、22年まで必要」 米ハーバード大が予測 https://t.co/UtrE6IvluZ 【論文ソース】 ▼Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the p…
RT @ken_sugar: ▼「外出自粛、22年まで必要」 米ハーバード大が予測 https://t.co/UtrE6IvluZ 【論文ソース】 ▼Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the p…
要するに、 「〔この先一年以上続く〕長期の籠城戦を補給ゼロで戦って各個自滅しろ」 と言っているわけだ。愚策の極みだな。 #新型コロナウイルス対策 田村厚労相「高齢者や基礎疾患ある人も自宅療養の可能性」 原則入院の方針転換<新型コロナ>:東京新聞 TOKYO Web https://t.co/wg3Vu7mF6b
「羽鳥慎一モーニングショー @morningshow_tv 」のスタッフはこの論文のこと知らないのかなあ? #テレビ朝日 #モーニングショー #新型コロナウイルス対策
「… social distancing の成功は集中治療の Capacity を超えるか否かで、これを避ける ためには、2022年まで長期に渡る、または間歇的な social distancing が必要となる。…(中略)…明らかな発症例が無くなったとしても、感染再興の可能性は2024年まである…」 (→次へ) https://t.co/Li0bIDANFR
RT @NAChristakis: @leonidkruglyak Lots of factors go into the assessment, discussed in chapter 7 of #APOLLOSARROW. Briefly, I don’t think a…
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period https://t.co/s96F7GYOfH
RT @_akiraendo: 勿論「感染者がx人になるたびに緊急事態宣言を出す」のような仮定の下での予測はできるでしょうが、そんな単純に物事が進まなかったのはご存知の通り。結局「ロックダウンと再拡大を繰り返す」という今後の大まかな展望を示す位が限度だったはず(既存研究あり↓)…
RT @_akiraendo: 勿論「感染者がx人になるたびに緊急事態宣言を出す」のような仮定の下での予測はできるでしょうが、そんな単純に物事が進まなかったのはご存知の通り。結局「ロックダウンと再拡大を繰り返す」という今後の大まかな展望を示す位が限度だったはず(既存研究あり↓)…
勿論「感染者がx人になるたびに緊急事態宣言を出す」のような仮定の下での予測はできるでしょうが、そんな単純に物事が進まなかったのはご存知の通り。結局「ロックダウンと再拡大を繰り返す」という今後の大まかな展望を示す位が限度だったはず(既存研究あり↓) https://t.co/dwesPUVW1z
RT @danjtorres: Sigo impactado de lo genial que fue este artículo con sus proyecciones. En mayo 2020 se sugirió que la pandemia iría y ve…
Sigo impactado de lo genial que fue este artículo con sus proyecciones. En mayo 2020 se sugirió que la pandemia iría y vendría un par de años. 1/2 Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period | Science https://t.co/
@TaunRey @PaulaPasst @c_drosten @marcfriedrich7 @Karl_Lauterbach Grob gesagt ja. Aber bitte selbst nachlesen. Es wurden auch starke regionale Unterschiede benannt (NY ~40%, Florida ~20%). https://t.co/14glrCv10f https://t.co/BCejcqfBoL
@ID_ethics What about this one? https://t.co/CCs8SXyuU0
映画『ひまわり』が流れていた阿倍野のコムソも、北新地の石和川もなくなった。連れて行った母もなくなった。
免疫力みたいなアホなことを言ったり、水素水みたいなバカなものを飲むような人たちが、新型コロナを克服できるはずがないんだよな。 https://t.co/HZ0e3Q9Q9P