@shananalla Diwali and winter are coming up, pandemic is just getting started. In the absence of an effective vaccine, might see post-pandemic outbreaks every few years. Qs on duration of immunity remain unanswered. R_effective will increase when restricti
RT @MBittencourtMD: Ainda, a evolução futura da COVID-19 depende da duração da imunidade adquirida e de possivel imunidade cruzada com outr…
RT @MBittencourtMD: Ainda, a evolução futura da COVID-19 depende da duração da imunidade adquirida e de possivel imunidade cruzada com outr…
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period | Science https://t.co/5oy2ZzzJXI
RT @MBittencourtMD: Ainda, a evolução futura da COVID-19 depende da duração da imunidade adquirida e de possivel imunidade cruzada com outr…
RT @MBittencourtMD: Ainda, a evolução futura da COVID-19 depende da duração da imunidade adquirida e de possivel imunidade cruzada com outr…
Ainda, a evolução futura da COVID-19 depende da duração da imunidade adquirida e de possivel imunidade cruzada com outros coronavirus. Este estudo entra em detalhes considerando sazonalidade, duração de imunidade e imunidade cruzada https://t.co/Bf1r5V7r
Paper in @ScienceMagazine from mid-April: warning of recurrent outbreaks perhaps out to 2025 https://t.co/fZWsiKdu7q 5/
I still do not understand why economists have not interacted more on projections for COVID-19 in the long term. They are NOW worried about a second wave and multicycle shock. This has been projected as multiwave early on and was published in May. https://
Es imposible escuchar esto y no sentir pánico por el nivel de ineptitud. Ayuso: "Todos pensaban que la pandemia iba a durar lo que iba a durar pero es que se ha acabado el verano". Artículo en Mayo indicando vigilancia de posibles brotes hasta 2024: htt
RT @AndrewW66619812: @CliveWismayer @pw_pwd Did he actually specify *which* Christmas he was referring to? This Harvard modelling study su…
@CliveWismayer @pw_pwd Did he actually specify *which* Christmas he was referring to? This Harvard modelling study suggests it should be virtually all over by late 2024. ... "Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic per
I encourage everyone to read this paper. I just finished going through it for one of my courses and it does a good job of breaking down how this pandemic will evolve long term. A SEIRS model was used without inclusion of a vaccine parameter. https://t.co
1 - Inmunidad permanente: en este caso, el virus desaparece en años salvo mutaciones grandes. 2 - Inmunidad temporal: el virus sigue en circulación de manera estacional con efectos similares a los de una gripe. Por si alguien se atreve: https://t.co/B1
@BobSchaller That being said, this paper published in May gives a good statistical framework on how to dance the dance (i.e. determining when certain control measures should be implemented). It's a shame we don't hear public health officials using similar
@MSCMommyLife @LesaM412 @tdsb But what we've learned this summer is that AGE of cases is critical too. We may just be starting to see an uptick in case age...if that is real, we will see it echo in 2-3 weeks in hospitalization numbers. Our paper: https://
@therealrthorat @treadoman I mean, a herd immunity threshold of 10-20% doesn't even yet make it into the peer-reviewed literature, given how contradictory it is to the evidence. https://t.co/YLEaIoUcNg https://t.co/dIK6fqmxi7
@LouPalumbo @ErrolWebber The article, which explains how models work and how they can be useful, is in the New England Journal of Medicine, a peer-reviewed journal. Some models ARE published in peer-reviewed journals, like this one https://t.co/tsHEm6t9k
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period https://t.co/pjQX1CmYOi #Projecting #TransmissionDynamics #Sars-cov-2
In the long term, if we don't eradicate COVID-19 completely within the next year, and it becomes endemic, it's not unreasonable to guess we might see seasonal dynamics.... (7/10) https://t.co/B3k8Kkug4X
『サイエンス』(2020年4月14日) https://t.co/PZY1qKC3ON 新型肺炎 COVID-19について、ハーバード大学の M. リプシッツ教授は世界の 40~70パーセントが感染して集団免疫をもつに至ると予想しました。
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period https://t.co/41ALFlwX8F
@Thischarminham I think the article I was referring to may have been published by @StephenKissler here’s is a link to a different detailed research abstract that was published in late May, which contains a lot of good info. https://t.co/Qk9PwuekfS https
RT @NahasNewman: @JimKeoughNJ @mlipsitch I am sure there are other papers of his worth reading. Here is one. https://t.co/w2ZbMnLJPj
@JimKeoughNJ @mlipsitch I am sure there are other papers of his worth reading. Here is one. https://t.co/w2ZbMnLJPj
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period https://t.co/vvrmKp9KQb
RT @AnaBandar: لمن سأل والمهتمين: السيناريوهات الثلاثة ذُكرت بشكل مبسط في https://t.co/xUZrWgLhKc هذه المقالة تلخص ورقة علمية مفصلة عن تنب…
RT @IPFdoc: Worth revisiting this excellent manuscript from Kissler and colleagues from May in light of emerging data. Actual data from htt…
RT @gabozinhaa: https://t.co/5zJxexmGNL qualquer coisa, usa o translate ❤️
@ely_mattos Sim! Além das implicações para as vacinas. O único estudo que modelou estes cenários mais realistas foi o do Prof @mlipsitch na @ScienceMagazine https://t.co/9Xdq0e3L6M
Worth revisiting this excellent manuscript from Kissler and colleagues from May in light of emerging data. Actual data from https://t.co/IA0Slkqcyb and projections from Figure 4 https://t.co/yS0lNmfgb2 https://t.co/YgeFG8K37b
Re: "Further context on Ischgl, Austria: - ~42% infected without achieving herd immunity, based on seroprevalence - IFR of ~0.3% (younger-skewed population)" https://t.co/aK7ipX2rK8 https://t.co/YLEaIoUcNg https://t.co/sN9XxdIB9f https://t.co/NqYrT2kjpw
Sars Sciao https://t.co/T5HYBCGz62
Sé que es de abril, pero: SARS-Cov-2 prevalence (black curves) and critical cases (red curves) under intermittent social distancing (shaded blue regions) without seasonal forcing (A and C) and with seasonal forcing (B and D). https://t.co/ISXFOrxOma htt
RT @vorachatMD: ถ้าจากบทความนี้ โลกของเราคงต้อง - ปิดๆเปิดๆกันเป็นระยะ อาจนานกินเวลาถึง2ปี ปิดตลอดไม่ได้ จะอดตายกันหมด เปิดหมดก็ไม่รอด เ…
RT @vorachatMD: ถ้าจากบทความนี้ โลกของเราคงต้อง - ปิดๆเปิดๆกันเป็นระยะ อาจนานกินเวลาถึง2ปี ปิดตลอดไม่ได้ จะอดตายกันหมด เปิดหมดก็ไม่รอด เ…
RT @vorachatMD: ถ้าจากบทความนี้ โลกของเราคงต้อง - ปิดๆเปิดๆกันเป็นระยะ อาจนานกินเวลาถึง2ปี ปิดตลอดไม่ได้ จะอดตายกันหมด เปิดหมดก็ไม่รอด เ…
I’m not sure this guy’s timeline is right, but his model of how the pandemic will evolve sounds right to me, and I haven’t seen many descriptions like this.
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period https://t.co/MneVnnxf0e
@CoronawatchNL @jaapstronks @Wim_Schellekens Past bij de paper waaruit van Dissel op 20 mei een model presenteerde: -Zorgcapaciteit als uitgangspunt - IC capaciteit uitbreiden voor meer marge (“lucht”) - testen om te monitoren omdat alleen op de zkh-cijfe
@NahasNewman Look at the study from May he’s basing this fear mongering off🙄 How many assumptions can we prove false in this pointless study ? 😂and hurry someone teach him about T-Cell’s and no reinfections https://t.co/CEF0hBBEv2 https://t.co/Ak07UURiVF
RT @NAChristakis: @leonidkruglyak Lots of factors go into the assessment, discussed in chapter 7 of #APOLLOSARROW. Briefly, I don’t think a…
@medicalfollower @raoult_didier vraie question : de quand date cette suggestion du Pʳ Raoult ? Je la trouve fin mai, après Kissler et coll (22 mai) https://t.co/bi6aOl2SWH (notez, m̂ sans la paternité de la suggestion, il resterait qu'il avait raison sur
Long read of a grim forecast. https://t.co/jj4TtYSNCS
RT @NAChristakis: @leonidkruglyak Lots of factors go into the assessment, discussed in chapter 7 of #APOLLOSARROW. Briefly, I don’t think a…
RT @melissamcpheete: Good time to reread this paper and then let’s consider what the next couple of years look like. Projecting the transmi…
RT @NAChristakis: @leonidkruglyak Lots of factors go into the assessment, discussed in chapter 7 of #APOLLOSARROW. Briefly, I don’t think a…
Good time to reread this paper and then let’s consider what the next couple of years look like. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period | Science https://t.co/e9Vw7KMo9N
RT @NAChristakis: @leonidkruglyak Lots of factors go into the assessment, discussed in chapter 7 of #APOLLOSARROW. Briefly, I don’t think a…
Sobering science - there is still a lot we don't know - time to plan for the long haul - create social and educational "pods" https://t.co/Vgzt2TxFP3
@DogLady2020 @anna_louise83 @NotStarmer @Keir_Starmer Home schooling until 2025 isn't a viable option for anyone. https://t.co/yQjy53TzJl
RT @NAChristakis: @leonidkruglyak Lots of factors go into the assessment, discussed in chapter 7 of #APOLLOSARROW. Briefly, I don’t think a…
RT @NAChristakis: @leonidkruglyak Lots of factors go into the assessment, discussed in chapter 7 of #APOLLOSARROW. Briefly, I don’t think a…
@MauritzPreller A Sunday read for you: https://t.co/2d0vcQDFAp
RT @NAChristakis: @leonidkruglyak Lots of factors go into the assessment, discussed in chapter 7 of #APOLLOSARROW. Briefly, I don’t think a…
RT @NAChristakis: @leonidkruglyak Lots of factors go into the assessment, discussed in chapter 7 of #APOLLOSARROW. Briefly, I don’t think a…
Very sharp expert in this field with very grim predictions. I'm skeptical that he is right given positive Stage II results and several recent immunity research publications, but something to consider
@leonidkruglyak Lots of factors go into the assessment, discussed in chapter 7 of #APOLLOSARROW. Briefly, I don’t think a vaccine will be available, distributed, & accepted by large enough percentage to forestall reaching herd immunity which will happe
@robertchris333 @escalator_drop Here is a study/article from experts showing why 2025 is an appropriate out year to think about for the current pandemic. The professional experts, or the twitter egg sad at reality. Really hard to know who to trust more.
RT @EKDuranMD: I’m reminded of this excellent @HarvardEpi publication in @ScienceMagazine that we covered in @BWHDPM journal club earlier t…
Sars News https://t.co/T5HYBCGz62
Jsjsjsjs, si fuimos bien ingenuxs con ésta pandemia, nunca nos imaginamos que duraría tanto y que sus consecuencias en varios niveles serían tan devastadoras. Y los modelos estiman que ésto durará hasta el pinches 2024. https://t.co/WOPCaq9TML
@youyanggu Re: "3) Herd immunity threshold is lower (~10-35%) due to lower rate of transmission (Rt)" HIT is tied to R0, which typically differs from Rt. HIT is most likely greater than 50%. https://t.co/ET4eUdAyO9
En resumen puede decirse que depende de los siguientes factores: vacunas, duración de la inmunidad, comportamiento social, medidas de prevención, medidas de lo gobiernos. La incidencia total de #SARSCoV2 hasta 2025 depende de la duración de la inmunidad.
Con respecto a las vacunas-covid19 un tema importante, más allá de cuando/cómo estarán disponibles, es la duración de la inmunidad que produzcan. Los escenarios futuros se modelan en el árticulo https://t.co/Elsvwt0LDN
RT @virusfantom: (n/n) Kaynaklar: https://t.co/b8SU2em4v0 https://t.co/V2WX5qeNc6
RT @virusfantom: (n/n) Kaynaklar: https://t.co/b8SU2em4v0 https://t.co/V2WX5qeNc6
RT @virusfantom: (n/n) Kaynaklar: https://t.co/b8SU2em4v0 https://t.co/V2WX5qeNc6
RT @virusfantom: (n/n) Kaynaklar: https://t.co/b8SU2em4v0 https://t.co/V2WX5qeNc6
RT @MunohierroRios: El nuevo trabajo de los investigadores de Harvard @mlipsitch,@yhgrad, @StephenKissler, @ctedijanto y Goldstein muestra…
RT @MunohierroRios: El nuevo trabajo de los investigadores de Harvard @mlipsitch,@yhgrad, @StephenKissler, @ctedijanto y Goldstein muestra…
RT @virusfantom: (n/n) Kaynaklar: https://t.co/b8SU2em4v0 https://t.co/V2WX5qeNc6
(n/n) Kaynaklar: https://t.co/b8SU2em4v0 https://t.co/V2WX5qeNc6
RT @M08213628: « Faible persistance des anticorps neutralisants contre le #SARS-CoV-2, ..fréquence des réinfections par les HCoV, semblent…
« Faible persistance des anticorps neutralisants contre le #SARS-CoV-2, ..fréquence des réinfections par les HCoV, semblent suggérer que la #Covid_19 sera parmi nous pour longtemps, voire très longtemps..» #HerdImmunity #SocialDistance #2024 ?.. https://t.
RT @MunohierroRios: El nuevo trabajo de los investigadores de Harvard @mlipsitch,@yhgrad, @StephenKissler, @ctedijanto y Goldstein muestra…
Kafamda okula gitmeden mezun olur muyum fikirleri çakıyor
RT @ufukkilic: Önemli bir makale: "Sokağa çıkma yasağı 2022'ye kadar aralıklı olarak sürebilir ve salgın 2024'e kadar tekrar ortaya çıkabi…
願望のいっぱい混じったチャート 細胞性免疫も期待できるので若者の致死率が圧倒的に低い 液性免疫(抗体)+細胞性免疫35%(Nature)=50%でOK? なので若者は集団免疫を形成しやすい ストックホルムでは、これが世話をする高齢者をも 守ることになり急速に死亡数が減少? https://t.co/StbAaiuBKO https://t.co/Mxo9b3YkSg
RT @pjcardona14: Qué passarà amb la #covid19 ? Projeccions futures. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpand…
RT @pjcardona14: Qué passarà amb la #covid19 ? Projeccions futures. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpand…
https://t.co/StbAaiMcCm Hammer & Danceも あんまり小刻みでは、長引いて大変なので 受入能力を増やすということではなかったの? もっぱら検査抑制に向かっているような 厚労省の説明だと一回で終わるような図を 用いているのでみんなが誤解しているのでは? https://t.co/3BK3Xx8Xpc
RT @pjcardona14: Qué passarà amb la #covid19 ? Projeccions futures. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpand…
RT @pjcardona14: Qué passarà amb la #covid19 ? Projeccions futures. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpand…
RT @pjcardona14: Qué passarà amb la #covid19 ? Projeccions futures. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpand…
RT @pjcardona14: Qué passarà amb la #covid19 ? Projeccions futures. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpand…
RT @pjcardona14: Qué passarà amb la #covid19 ? Projeccions futures. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpand…
RT @pjcardona14: Qué passarà amb la #covid19 ? Projeccions futures. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpand…
Qué passarà amb la #covid19 ? Projeccions futures. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period https://t.co/KdWekG7kEe
@VicenteAriztia @jjimeneza1972 They are better than the link u posted (which is from a non-expert statistician who made the absurd mistake of thinking he could infer herd immunity just because cases/day, hospitalizations/day, and COVID/19 deaths/day decrea
@krept @Scarpinato @AZDHS You mean the same @AZDHS that has failed Arizona? Here’s a paper to read. “we note the potentially catastrophic burden on the healthcare...if distancing is poorly effective and/or not sustained for long enough” Published in April.
RT @AtomsksSanakan: @kittyprivilege @edubrigham @daniellevitt22 Re: "Real life examples of the Diamond Princess and Sweden also point to a…
@CBCNews @jonmontpetit @robroc Time to have some science instead of these non expert opinions https://t.co/sCCkR9r3ek
RT @SosNinosename1: @JamesTodaroMD @raoult_didier In 7 days, Harvard Experts set up the scientific basis of Covid 19 medical treatment: 1)…