Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study

RT @wilsonstheorem: この時期のことを調べていた。これを田村元厚労相がPCR検査を拡大しない弁明に使っていたのね。誰が吹き込んだんだろう。専門家メンバーの一人なのか。 https://t.co/JEiokWTSBX

RT @wilsonstheorem: この時期のことを調べていた。これを田村元厚労相がPCR検査を拡大しない弁明に使っていたのね。誰が吹き込んだんだろう。専門家メンバーの一人なのか。 https://t.co/JEiokWTSBX

RT @wilsonstheorem: この時期のことを調べていた。これを田村元厚労相がPCR検査を拡大しない弁明に使っていたのね。誰が吹き込んだんだろう。専門家メンバーの一人なのか。 https://t.co/JEiokWTSBX

この時期のことを調べていた。これを田村元厚労相がPCR検査を拡大しない弁明に使っていたのね。誰が吹き込んだんだろう。専門家メンバーの一人なのか。 https://t.co/JEiokWTSBX

I wrote a model a while ago & it didn't produce what was hoped, so I tweaked a couple of parameters and presto! The desired result. @sabhlok is right in his comment as typified by the modelled fatalities of 100K in 2020, actual figure? 947. Result? A f

There's nothing worse than papers of this kind purporting to be science. These are MATHEMATICAL MODELS, nothing whatsoever to do with empiricism. Worse than useless: positively dangerous. @TheLancet - please stop this attack on science. https://t.co/7JZ

@Ken__kaneki33 L'isolation : https://t.co/fIWWv8OnuT

@Ken__kaneki33 Il y en a des dizaines. Insupportables ces spécialistes de pacotille qui se croient compétents sur les sujets sanitaires. https://t.co/fIWWv8OnuT

@nise_kenpo @Jimo0404 @Annon_Kurage @icestone_sisyph https://t.co/jfwivzwWLF

@nise_kenpo @windmage2 @sparrow_for https://t.co/euFThZiVQy https://t.co/8ftg4hjgP0 https://t.co/wWJ3zsTvt1 https://t.co/99csBBZfC0 https://t.co/AXKssAHEVZ https://t.co/aRc10eMrCA https://t.co/YPP4YkSfMO https://t.co/PK1Ce7Mbqt まだコロナウイルスの論文必要？

@stevin2021 @Allconsidered1 @MLevitt_NP2013 Isolation of cases and contacts is the most efficient NPI. This paper shows what is required to reduce R0 from 2.6 to 1 Self isolation, household quarantine and meticulous contact tracing. School closures not req

@Righteous_Wolf @RichieofPi1 @MarlaTellez @BillFOXLA @Elex_Michaelson @houmanhemmati https://t.co/YizjrOURzh

@anohimita_hana @koichi_kawakami どうぞ イギリス https://t.co/3T4EHakHtp ドイツ https://t.co/zATRXyffge 中国 https://t.co/4dJ4P1vaej 中国CDC https://t.co/uiykSq9HbK チュニジア https://t.co/cIz4mN2zCx オランダ https://t.co/gMfv5n7FxX 日本 https://t.co/sVrEVJzQwJ オーストラリア http

@mishafumisha @oyukihan1126 @Revo3629Revo @denpamonkey39ra @sakosako3_5 クロアチア https://t.co/TSNfimXTTe イギリス https://t.co/3T4EHakHtp 南アフリカ https://t.co/SvXFnk8DTF ネパール https://t.co/N9LTF934sD ドイツ https://t.co/zATRXyffge チュニジア https://t.co/cIz4mN2zCx オラ

Ja maar Zweden...

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @josegallucci: 👉

👉

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

Antes de puxar a Suécia como exemplo, tenha a certeza de estar ciente de certas particularidades extremamente relevantes como número médio de cohabitantes (residentes do mesmo domicílio) e regras sobre licença médica.

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

@WildCougar_ @chrislhayes ???? Literally all of the evidence supports quarantining being effective. https://t.co/DNN5fAoGSz Even *just* household isolating after exposure + contact tracing reduces viral spread by more than 60%. And that's an enormous st

Questo é uno dei più forti al mondo. Non mi ricordo chi ha detto sta cosa pochi giorni dopo il lockdown. Vedete...ci hanno sterminato...ma io non dimentico e non mollo. https://t.co/sfZzBwUcZS

RT @adamjkucharski: In particular, sick leave, combined with household size, may explain quite a lot of the between-country differences we…

RT @adamjkucharski: In particular, sick leave, combined with household size, may explain quite a lot of the between-country differences we…

RT @adamjkucharski: In particular, sick leave, combined with household size, may explain quite a lot of the between-country differences we…

RT @adamjkucharski: In particular, sick leave, combined with household size, may explain quite a lot of the between-country differences we…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: In particular, sick leave, combined with household size, may explain quite a lot of the between-country differences we…

In particular, sick leave, combined with household size, may explain quite a lot of the between-country differences we saw in Europe... 4/ https://t.co/zNHUXXH3kI

Excellent post mortem analysis of that dreadful #UnvaccinatedDocumentary 👏 Credit to @profnfenton 's tweet, I've copied the link for the article that @FryRsquared was involved in for nudging us into lockdown: https://t.co/EJJUZvsqDJ

@MarkChangizi @Allconsidered1 @orwell2022 @digregjf @AlexeyZiskin @squatter666 @MLevitt_NP2013 @DrJBhattacharya @USMortality @MilanLehocky @dobssi @rpezer1 I think locking down cities of millions for months when prevalence is .1% is not an example of commo

@digregjf @AlexeyZiskin @Allconsidered1 @orwell2022 @squatter666 @MLevitt_NP2013 @DrJBhattacharya @USMortality @MilanLehocky @dobssi @rpezer1 Here's my modest proposal https://t.co/JAuQnG5nI4

@Allconsidered1 @dobssi @orwell2022 @digregjf @AlexeyZiskin @squatter666 @MLevitt_NP2013 @DrJBhattacharya @USMortality @MilanLehocky @rpezer1 No. This paper shows what is required to reduce R0 from 2.6 to 1 Self isolation, household quarantine and meticulo

RT @mr_Smith_Econ: @Isarddubois @Auke_Terlouw @ansgarjohn @Elbotezet @rivm @wol @mkeulemans @MarionKoopmans @C19RedTeam En Keulemans haalt…

RT @mr_Smith_Econ: @Isarddubois @Auke_Terlouw @ansgarjohn @Elbotezet @rivm @wol @mkeulemans @MarionKoopmans @C19RedTeam En Keulemans haalt…

@Isarddubois @Auke_Terlouw @ansgarjohn @Elbotezet @rivm @wol @mkeulemans @MarionKoopmans @C19RedTeam En Keulemans haalt maar even een studie aan uit juni 2020, alsof we met omikron niet een andere dynamiek hebben.. Mag allemaal. https://t.co/aWnKnItswk

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @SergioEfe: Asumiendo que a Suecia le fue bien (insisto, asumiéndolo), la pregunta es si lo observado se habría replicado en otros paíse…

RT @SergioEfe: Asumiendo que a Suecia le fue bien (insisto, asumiéndolo), la pregunta es si lo observado se habría replicado en otros paíse…

RT @SergioEfe: Asumiendo que a Suecia le fue bien (insisto, asumiéndolo), la pregunta es si lo observado se habría replicado en otros paíse…

RT @SergioEfe: Asumiendo que a Suecia le fue bien (insisto, asumiéndolo), la pregunta es si lo observado se habría replicado en otros paíse…

RT @SergioEfe: Asumiendo que a Suecia le fue bien (insisto, asumiéndolo), la pregunta es si lo observado se habría replicado en otros paíse…

Asumiendo que a Suecia le fue bien (insisto, asumiéndolo), la pregunta es si lo observado se habría replicado en otros países con contextos socioeconómicos, geográficos, políticos... diferentes. Tan ingenuo es pensar que España podía ser Corea del Sur com

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

@JamesMelville https://t.co/bljqysi3tu

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @Dr_D_Robertson: "'what about Sweden?' I think a good chunk of the answer should mention housing and sick pay."

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @Dr_D_Robertson: "'what about Sweden?' I think a good chunk of the answer should mention housing and sick pay."

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

⬇️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️

RT @adamjkucharski: Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context wor…

"'what about Sweden?' I think a good chunk of the answer should mention housing and sick pay."

Seeing lots of coverage of Sweden COVID dynamics again (in context of WHO excess mortality estimates). Some context worth bearing in mind: A. COVID transmission risk is generally much higher among household contacts (e.g. Table 2: https://t.co/AQ1qNRj3Dg)

@J45Mh @gorgevparis @shuichiotsu イギリス https://t.co/3T4EHakHtp ドイツ（デュッセルドルフ大学病院） https://t.co/zATRXyffge NEJM https://t.co/4dJ4P1vaej チュニジア https://t.co/cIz4mN2zCx オランダ https://t.co/gMfv5n7FxX 感染研 https://t.co/TsjwWQQeoU

@jamesowers I've lost exact traces but I started from: https://t.co/Ba4KQwGgUj, then went through https://t.co/O6cIibeSk7 and https://t.co/jGMEjEZZKC + https://t.co/tXaGES1veL and whoever cited it, https://t.co/fbGEOX43Si, https://t.co/Y2nPdDlKWq and also

@Shimizudesu2 @noririna_abc 南アフリカ https://t.co/SvXFnk8DTF ネパール https://t.co/N9LTF934sD クロアチア https://t.co/TSNfimXTTe イギリス https://t.co/3T4EHakHtp ドイツ https://t.co/zATRXyffge NEJM https://t.co/4dJ4P1vaej チュニジア https://t.co/cIz4mN2zCx オランダ https://t.co/gMfv5

Omicron in Hawaii: cases nearing all time highs, fuel storage tanks leaking into Oahu’s water, & Hawaii just ended its quarantine and isolation program (which seems helpful for + people living w/high risk household members). Have we stopped trying?

@ewaldeng Dat is een wel erg vergaande, overdreven en feitelijk onjuiste claim. Er zijn maatregelen die wel degelijk impact maken. In the Lancet vind je tal van stukken daarover: https://t.co/mVsHwZlza1

@nepriden Tako raziskavo bi si želela videti, k bi vključevala PCT in pokazala, kako pripomore k zmanjšanju širjenja virusa. Mogoče si zastavljam napačna vprašanja o PCTju. (1/2) https://t.co/SJWq3wve4j https://t.co/7ZbHszAnzD

全部細胞培養

@Allconsidered1 @MLevitt_NP2013 @Yascha_Mounk Read the papers https://t.co/eB9jMMsKaQ https://t.co/Vw1tTbqaD3 Depending on Ro, if sufficient % isolate at onset of symptoms, sufficient % of household contacts quarantined and sufficient % of contacts traced

@__anasto__ @h98_u @q1t5OutBAUHzyGt これじゃない？ https://t.co/gjRE43sOvc

@MirKraszewski https://t.co/5nym4nR766 https://t.co/5I2cKmKh8l https://t.co/XALxLdMMla https://t.co/TYzz1ENcsZ "Not only does physical distancing reduce transmission, but it is also likely to reduce the number of unknown contacts who can be harder to trace

@tobotta 以前、ロックダウンの威力を示したこのLancetに地味に検査の効果が出ていましたので、どうなるか試算してみました。 https://t.co/y91zcGMMnC (そりゃロックダウンは強烈です。対象者全員に陽性判定が出たのと同様な効果があるハズ) 「毎週無作為の5%に検査すると実効再生産数が2%減る」

RT @parasite2006: @_kidn @inakashoge @tyonarock この時の論文ですね。https://t.co/wVB4sf4lPa 私も読んで感銘をうけ、このまとめhttps://t.co/n98Qzyq3yI を作った時に 「論文2」として収録…

@_kidn @inakashoge @tyonarock この時の論文ですね。https://t.co/wVB4sf4lPa 私も読んで感銘をうけ、このまとめhttps://t.co/n98Qzyq3yI を作った時に 「論文2」として収録させていただきました。この表（無対策時の実行再生産数を2.6と想定）を見ると「実行再生産数を下げたければ打てる手を総動員しろ」と読めます。 https://t.co/ifuVWZQ5t3

RT @_kidn: @inakashoge @tyonarock @parasite2006 昔先生にお見せしたことのある論文ですが、仰る通り大量検査だけではRt低減効果は非常に低いというのは数理モデル等で示されています。多くの検査に隔離や接触者追跡を併用すると効果は数十倍に…

@inakashoge @tyonarock @parasite2006 昔先生にお見せしたことのある論文ですが、仰る通り大量検査だけではRt低減効果は非常に低いというのは数理モデル等で示されています。多くの検査に隔離や接触者追跡を併用すると効果は数十倍に増大しており、大量検査は単体で意味はなく総合的な方策の前提なのだと思います。https://t.co/DvFm4YKxPu

RT @Derive_ip: なお、尾身氏は、上記記事中やコロナ分科会資料などでも、この論文を引用し、人口の5%に毎週検査を行い、陽性者を隔離したとしても、「実効再生産数」は2%しか低下しないと説明しています。 https://t.co/omwghKaiYt

RT @AdamJKucharski: Under pre-pandemic contact patterns, a typical case will have 25+ contacts while infectious (https://t.co/hXeVcNnEpa).…

Credit to: @dothamrin, @lamuriam Source: https://t.co/ICQ5y6Ge3e

RT @flurry: Kucharski というと、日本でわけのわからない形で引用された論文のことを思い出します。「人口の5%に対して毎週検査しても実効再生産数は2%しか減らない」のアレ。 https://t.co/F5QjdKmxU0 https://t.co/DpxL0p…

Kucharski というと、日本でわけのわからない形で引用された論文のことを思い出します。「人口の5%に対して毎週検査しても実効再生産数は2%しか減らない」のアレ。 https://t.co/F5QjdKmxU0 https://t.co/exHYLPqvam

RT @MinatoNakazawa: 英語版は去年2月に出ていて，Kindle版が約1000円。この和訳は今年3月に出版されたので，よく1年間で出せたなあと思った記憶がある Kucharski准教授のグループの研究には https://t.co/htzzehkFLR で後にL…

RT @MinatoNakazawa: 英語版は去年2月に出ていて，Kindle版が約1000円。この和訳は今年3月に出版されたので，よく1年間で出せたなあと思った記憶がある Kucharski准教授のグループの研究には https://t.co/htzzehkFLR で後にL…

英語版は去年2月に出ていて，Kindle版が約1000円。この和訳は今年3月に出版されたので，よく1年間で出せたなあと思った記憶がある Kucharski准教授のグループの研究には https://t.co/htzzehkFLR で後にLancet Infect Disに載った https://t.co/eumX8ypDXj に触れた https://t.co/95HSQlIv2n も

@katebevan @tomskitomski [reference: https://t.co/WFI49fnZ3k ]

@JShinn79 @libdemdaisy Isolation when people are supported does work to reduce infection transmission https://t.co/wGq2sXeuWI . We achieve 95% people complying locally in Herts. Each and every one of them cuts infections by not passing infection on

RT @AdamJKucharski: Under pre-pandemic contact patterns, a typical case will have 25+ contacts while infectious (https://t.co/hXeVcNnEpa).…